Ban on Hezbollah: The end of an era or a dangerous escalation? Foreign experts on Caliber.Az

Lebanon's government has decided to abolish the military activities of Hezbollah, a move publicly announced by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who demanded that the organisation lay down its arms.

“We announce a ban on Hezbollah’s military activities and restrict its role to the political sphere,” he stated, while reaffirming the Lebanese government’s commitment to the truce reached with Israel in 2024.

This bold move by Lebanon’s leadership raises several questions, particularly about how events will unfold and what response to expect from Hezbollah. Foreign political analysts and Middle East experts shared their insights on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Russian journalist, Middle East expert, writer, and member of the Russian-Azerbaijani Expert Council, Sergey Strokan, believes that the measures against Hezbollah are connected to the Lebanese leadership’s desire to prevent the organisation from being drawn into the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and to avoid dragging Lebanon into this vortex of confrontation.

“Hezbollah is a real, combat-ready force, built up by Iran over many years, and now, perhaps, the organisation faces its ‘hour of reckoning’ to prove that all the resources and effort invested in it were not in vain. How feasible it is to ‘pressure’ Hezbollah in Lebanon is a complex question, as the movement holds significant influence in the country and remains an important factor in Lebanese politics. When you drive through Beirut, it becomes immediately clear which areas are under Hezbollah’s control and which are not.

At the same time, Lebanese authorities have never been particularly unified, so even today, when Israel strikes Hezbollah’s headquarters and leadership, this organisation—even weakened—still poses a tangible threat and remains capable of significant action. For this reason, I believe the Lebanese government has taken a risky step by openly confronting Hezbollah, although its logic is clear to me: the authorities do not want the sparks of a Middle Eastern war to reach Lebanon. Especially considering that the country has already suffered greatly from its own civil war and internal conflicts,” Strokan said.

Meanwhile, Kyrgyz political analyst, Middle East expert, and international security specialist Edil Osmonbetov noted that the very fact that the Lebanese government made such a statement indicates that Hezbollah and its influence in the region have been significantly weakened. This trend began during the 12-day war in 2025, and the ongoing clashes with Israel have inflicted serious damage on the organisation’s resources.

“The contours of modern geopolitics are rapidly shifting, and very soon we may witness a different world with new borders: political geography is being redrawn in real time, new centers of power are emerging, while others are fading into oblivion. Clearly, the Iranian proxy Hezbollah—as well as Hamas and others—has now been left without the support of its donor and patron, and this situation is beginning to affect the standing of what was once a highly influential organization in the region. Although the Lebanese army cannot match Hezbollah in terms of capabilities, the government’s determination suggests that this is not an empty statement. The Lebanese leadership’s reaffirmation of its commitment to the truce with Israel, and its willingness to engage in negotiations, indicate that even an organisation like Hezbollah may eventually cease to exist in the region,” Osmonbetov concluded.