EU or EAEU: Who is pushing Armenia toward a referendum—and why? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Armenia's Central Election Commission has registered a citizen-initiated referendum. At an extraordinary session, it decided to register a civic initiative to introduce amendments to the country's Constitution, Iravunk reports.

In April, during a meeting with Armenia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin strongly urged him to hold a referendum and make a choice between the EAEU and the EU.

Later, the heads of the EAEU member states also called on Armenia to resolve this issue as soon as possible through a nationwide vote. However, Nikol Pashinyan did not heed these recommendations. Nevertheless, in early July, an application to hold a referendum aimed at introducing an addition to the country's Constitution was submitted to Armenia's Central Election Commission.

The members of the Eurasian Alliance civic initiative, formed by representatives of the Alliance party of former MP Tigran Urikhanyan, consisting of 53 people, had the draft law notarised and submitted it to Armenia's Central Election Commission for registration.

The purpose of the initiative is to "neutralize and prevent the economic and social risks and crisis that may arise as a result of the adoption on March 26, 2025 of the Law 'On the Launch of the Process of the Republic of Armenia's Accession to the European Union,' due to the incompatibility between the customs regulations of the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)," among other objectives.

The draft proposes enshrining in the Constitution a prohibition on the Republic of Armenia signing interstate treaties that directly contradict international agreements already in force and previously signed by the country.

Lengthy negotiations took place between the Central Election Commission and the initiative's organisers. However, on the final day of the deadline established by law, at an extraordinary meeting on July 16, 2026, the Central Election Commission approved the application and registered the civic initiative to hold a referendum.

Under the Central Election Commission's regulations, the initiative's organisers must now collect 200,000 signatures within 60 days. If they succeed, a nationwide referendum will be scheduled, at which Armenian citizens will, in effect, decide whether to continue the country's EU accession process or retain its membership in the EAEU. According to the CEC's resolution, the official signature collection campaign will begin on August 3.

What will happen if the organisers collect 200,000 signatures? Will Armenian citizens support such a referendum? What is the government's position, and does this initiative push into the background the issue of amending the Constitution to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan?

Prominent Armenian experts shared their assessments of these questions with Caliber.Az.

Journalist and blogger Roman Baghdasaryan believes that this initiative is not worth paying attention to.

"Anyone can propose anything. Especially considering that the aforementioned Tigran Urikhanyan is Gagik Tsarukyan's man and a rather insignificant figure in Armenia. Believe me, no one is interested in what he is proposing. He is also associated with Ara Abramyan of the Union of Armenians of Russia. He will not collect 200,000 signatures. You can rest assured. And even if he does, it still won't make any difference.

The Constitution will be amended exactly as the majority of the people want. The Minister of Justice has already stated that by the end of the year, a draft of the new Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, including its key amendments, will be published. Decisions will be made on the basis of that document. I believe Parliament will find a way to adopt the Constitution, and there should be no problems with that. Therefore, we should wait until the end of the year, when the draft is presented, and only then will it become clear what happens next," Baghdasaryan concluded.

Analyst and publicist Ishkhan Verdyan, for his part, said that the initiative to hold a referendum in Armenia on whether the country should align itself with the EU or the EAEU could produce a result that its authors did not anticipate.

"If the leadership of the Eurasian Economic Union and Mr Putin truly want to hear the voice of the people and understand which direction Armenia is inclined toward, such a referendum could produce a very telling outcome: the overwhelming majority of Armenian citizens would most likely choose the path of European integration. This is especially likely against the backdrop of economic pressure from Russia, as well as its political and hybrid interference in Armenia's internal affairs.

This issue also overlaps with the possible constitutional referendum, under which the reference to the Declaration of Independence, containing provisions that neighbouring states rightly interpret as territorial claims, could be removed from the Constitution.

If such a referendum does indeed take place, it could, among other things, demonstrate to Nikol Pashinyan an effective model for conducting a similar campaign to achieve his intended objectives," Verdyan predicted.