The right is advancing: Germany sends a signal to Europe Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 43.8% of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, finishing first. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) received 17.2%.

The AfD will hold 39 of the 83 seats, while 42 are needed for an absolute majority. A coalition will therefore be required to form a government. A potential partner could be the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which won 5.3% of the vote and secured five seats. BSW’s lead candidate in the state, Thomas Schulze, said the party was ready to negotiate with all parties, including the AfD.

The election saw a record turnout: by 6 p.m., 76.5% of eligible voters had cast their ballots, the highest figure since 1990. However, the AfD’s accession to power is far from certain, as the other major parties continue to rule out cooperation with it. Nevertheless, the prospect of the far-right party leading a German state government for the first time since the Second World War would have seemed unthinkable until recently. The AfD hopes that its regional victory will pave the way for success in federal elections. Party co-leader Alice Weidel said she expects the party to win the support of at least 40% of voters in the 2029 Bundestag election.

Does the AfD’s victory represent another sign of the rapid transformation of Europe’s political landscape? Is this merely a success for one party, or does it reflect a deeper crisis of the political centre and a shift in public sentiment to the right? And what could this trend mean for the future of the European Union?

Prominent German political commentators shared their views on the situation with Caliber.Az.

Political scientist and professor at the University of Bonn Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, a consultant to Germany’s Federal Foreign Office, noted that Europe’s political landscape is undoubtedly changing.

“Old party systems no longer reflect public preferences, leading to a crisis of representation and social integration. Next year, national elections will be held in eight EU countries, and right-wing parties will shape the agenda on migration, energy, climate policy, support for developing countries, the future of the EU and NATO.

This will most likely have a negative impact on continued support for Ukraine, the Franco-German alliance, military cooperation within the EU and further EU enlargement. Sanctions against Russia could potentially be lifted.

We are witnessing the return of nationalism, protectionism and authoritarianism, along with declining trust in traditional parties, governments and our own scientific and technological capabilities. ‘Trumpism’ is spreading. Right-wing forces have not yet won, but the trend is clear. At the same time, the forces opposing them have yet to recognise how much they themselves have contributed to strengthening this trend. Democracy cannot survive without a capable state.

Solidarity with poorer EU countries is likely to decline, protectionism will intensify, and individual states will increasingly address border protection and the reception of foreigners on their own. The single market and consumer protection will remain, but a common approach to climate and energy policy is unlikely to continue. It remains an open question whether a common response to hybrid threats can be developed,” Heinemann-Grüder said.

Analyst, publisher and editor-in-chief of Neue Zeiten magazine and the Neue Zeiten TV YouTube channel Alexander Cherkassky, in turn, described what happened as a predictable consequence of the ruling coalition’s policies.

“The problem began back during Merkel’s years in power: a complete inability to carry out reforms, address migration problems, reform the economy and improve political governance. Today, Merz, in coalition with the Social Democrats, has ultimately disappointed the public by failing to implement the reforms he promised.

The AfD are not Nazis but a right-wing party that promises economic reforms and a solution to the acute migration problem. There are controversial elements in its agenda, but, as we can see, people are tired of what is happening. This will affect both the situation in Germany and the future of the EU. The shift to the right is a response to the leftward imbalance seen in other EU countries as well. That is how the laws of history work. Perhaps, over time, we will return to a constructive centre,” Cherkassky said.