“We’ll leave tomorrow”: Putin puts Yerevan on the spot Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Russia’s military base in Gyumri could be gone from Armenia as early as tomorrow if Yerevan no longer wants it there, Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalists in Bishkek.

Putin stressed that Moscow has no intention of imposing its military presence on Armenia: “If Armenia believes that the Russian base [in Gyumri — Ed.] is not needed, we will leave tomorrow. But is Armenia ready for that? Please, we will not impose anything on anyone. And if the Armenian people want some kind of Russian military presence nearby, we will stay, work and cooperate.”

How realistic would such a withdrawal be in practice? Is Armenia’s current leadership genuinely interested in the departure of Russian troops? And how might Armenian society respond to such a move?

Caliber.Az asked prominent experts to assess the prospects for a Russian military withdrawal from Armenia and the possible political and public reaction.

As Armenian analyst and publicist Ishkhan Verdyan noted, Vladimir Putin’s statement is notable because it may be the first case in which Russia has made the continued presence of its military base in another country conditional not on Moscow’s own political and strategic interests, but on the host country’s willingness to keep it.

“There has probably been no such precedent anywhere in the world, particularly when it comes to an active military base stationed under international agreements. That is why the statement is somewhat striking.

Is Armenia interested in withdrawing the base? Perhaps the question should be framed differently: Is Armenia interested in having a foreign military base on its territory, particularly after the base, in Armenia’s own assessment, failed to fulfil the terms of the agreement governing its presence?

I think the answer is no. The presence of the Russian military base, especially amid Armenia’s current domestic political situation, is a source of pressure — and quite a serious one. Armenia would most likely like to eliminate this factor.

I believe Armenian citizens would support the government if it suddenly made such a decision. But it should be understood that, in any case, this would be a major geopolitical step for Yerevan. Despite Putin’s relatively moderate remarks and his stated readiness to respect the wishes of the Armenian side, there is reason to suspect that this flexibility could be reconsidered specifically when it comes to the military base.

Nevertheless, in my view, the rationale for maintaining the Russian base in Armenia has practically disappeared. There is currently no immediate military threat to Armenia’s borders. As for the future, Nikol Pashinyan’s policy does not envisage military action against neighbouring countries. And even if such a scenario were to emerge at some point, a single relatively small military base would hardly be capable of resolving the situation, particularly in an era of high-tech warfare,” Verdyan argued.

International affairs expert and head of the South Caucasus Political Analysts Club Ilgar Velizade noted that Putin had officially and publicly stated that Russia would not object if Armenia decided to terminate the agreement governing the presence of the Russian military base on its territory ahead of schedule.

“This is a strong argument for Armenia and perhaps the most straightforward option if it ultimately decides to end the Russian military presence, especially since the Russian side has publicly stated that it has no objections. But Putin has also put Pashinyan in a somewhat uncomfortable position: if you want to get rid of the Russian military presence, then go ahead — you can announce it.

Of course, there is a whole range of issues surrounding the presence of Russian military personnel on Armenian territory. It is quite possible that, at this stage, the Armenian side is not ready to abandon the long-standing framework of Russian-Armenian military cooperation. But that is ultimately a decision for Armenia.

The ball is now in the Armenian authorities’ court. Their response will show whether Armenia genuinely wants to end the Russian military presence or not,” Velizade concluded.