Belarus on a war footing: What is Minsk preparing for? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has called for the country’s armed forces to be tested for their readiness for mobilisation.

“We are doing everything as it would be done in a war. We are preparing for war so that there will be no war,” Lukashenko said, stressing that Minsk has no intention of attacking neighbouring countries. He added that Belarus must be prepared to respond quickly and adequately if the situation escalates.

Lukashenko has repeatedly spoken about the need to prepare for a possible war. In late August, he also ordered a snap readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces.

Earlier, Alexander Ilyukevich, commander of the Belarusian Armed Forces’ Special Operations Forces, said a new air assault brigade was being formed in the Gomel region, near the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, sources cited by The Wall Street Journal claimed that Moscow is pressuring Minsk to open a new front in Ukraine and plans to use Belarus as a base for potential operations against NATO countries.

So, what is Minsk really preparing for?

Foreign experts shared their views with Caliber.Az.

Ukrainian analyst, PhD in Political Science and president of the International Institute for Security Studies, Oleksii Buriachenko, noted that Belarus plays an important role in Moscow’s potential scenarios.

“Analytical reports often highlight Belarus’s important role in possible scenarios for the development of relations between Russia and EU and NATO countries. For example, Moscow may view Belarus as an important platform due to its geographical location, including in the context of the Suwałki Gap and the potential use of drone technologies.

If relations between Russia and EU and NATO countries continue to escalate, Belarusian territory could take on additional importance. This could involve not only conventional military means, but also drones, cyberattacks and other modern tools that are already being actively used in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, Belarus is extremely important to Moscow. At the same time, potential threats could originate precisely from Belarusian territory, creating additional risks for Belarus itself.

In Russia, the option of invading Ukraine from the Belarusian direction has been put on hold, but it has not been completely taken off the table. In my view, the risks to Ukraine from Belarus remain. If a second front were opened, Ukraine would have to stretch its resources along a significantly longer border. However, Lukashenko understands the consequences of such a move. If Belarus were to enter the war directly, Ukrainian long-range weapons could strike Belarusian military infrastructure, including airfields, defence enterprises and dual-use facilities.

Therefore, when speaking about mobilisation and checking the troops, Lukashenko is also taking the domestic political situation into account. Rhetoric about a military threat helps him maintain public stability and demonstrate the country’s readiness for possible challenges. At the same time, such measures may also serve a practical purpose — preparing the Belarusian army not so much for an offensive as for repelling possible attacks. Lukashenko is likely primarily considering a deterrence scenario, as he understands the disparity between Belarus’s military capabilities and those of the states surrounding it.

Moreover, the nature of modern warfare is changing. The widespread use of cheap, technologically advanced unmanned systems is gradually reducing the importance of heavy armoured vehicles. The creation of broad zones of destruction along the frontline is making the use of conventional weapons increasingly risky,” Buriachenko said.

Belarusian analyst, journalist and democratic activist Alexander Otroshchenkov (Warsaw) noted that the latest talks between Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin were held behind closed doors, making it impossible to establish with certainty what was discussed.

“No one knows for sure what Putin demanded from Lukashenko. The Belarusian leader is in a difficult situation. He understands the risks of direct military confrontation with Ukraine, let alone NATO countries.

Belarus’s military preparations, including the formation of new units and checks of the army’s ability to transition from peacetime to wartime, do not necessarily mean preparations for a specific offensive operation. Rather, they indicate readiness for a possible deterioration of the situation in the region.

Lukashenko understands that the stakes are rising and that further developments could be unpredictable. Therefore, he is seeking to preserve the ability to respond to changes in the situation while simultaneously avoiding Belarus’s direct involvement in another large-scale conflict.

Ultimately, the Belarusian leadership is preparing not so much for a specific military operation as for various scenarios arising from a situation that has already gone beyond the bounds of a conventional regional confrontation,” Otroshchenkov believes.