666 days on Rustaveli Avenue: What remains of the Georgian opposition’s protest Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

According to the Georgian opposition’s “calendar”, September 24 marked the 666th day of the “protest”, Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili said. He argued that the date provides an opportunity to trace how the political movement has evolved into a “pseudo-religious fundamentalist sect” with its own rituals, symbols, calendar and internal rules.

As Papuashvili noted, “in the dogma of this pseudo-religious sect, the European Union is the ‘promised land’, Article 78 is a symbol of faith, resolutions are commandments, and a foreign politician is the high priest.” According to him, when a political movement cannot justify its existence through a concrete result, it may declare the continuation of the struggle itself to be an achievement, turning a political form into an end in itself.

Nearly 700 days have passed since the 2024 parliamentary elections. Part of the opposition described the election as a referendum, but after the results were announced and failed to meet its expectations, prolonged street protests began, later becoming known as the “continuous protest”.

The duration of a protest in itself does not indicate sectarianism. However, according to Papuashvili, the problem arises when a movement refuses to reconsider its tactics and turns rallies, marches and symbolic actions into an end in themselves. He sees precisely this transformation in the protests on Rustaveli Avenue.

Against this backdrop, several questions arise: How much longer can the Georgian opposition’s protest continue? What do the demonstrations look like today, how many people take part in them, and how regularly are they held? And do opposition leaders have any idea of a possible way out of the protracted situation?

These questions were answered by prominent Georgian experts in comments to Caliber.Az.

Political scientist and founder of the SIKHA Foundation research centre Archil Sikharulidze said that the ongoing rally outside the parliament building is a clear manifestation of the opposition’s lack of a genuine political idea.

“There are two important things here. First, the opposition initially declared these rallies to be non-political, claiming that they had no leader. But after the Georgian Dream suppressed the violent part of the protest and what remained was supposedly the peaceful component, the whole thing turned long ago into a kind of charade without a purpose. The real purpose of these protests, which have now reached their 666th day, was to show the European Union and the Joe Biden administration: ‘We are here, we are ready to act if you take steps from outside.’ The idea was to impose aggressive sanctions and pressure the government in order to destabilise the situation.

However, Donald Trump removed the American component of the funding, and without external funding and active US support, while relying on the Europeans, the opposition found itself at an impasse. It has no representation in parliament and has effectively dropped out of political life. At the same time, the protests that were supposedly non-political turned out to be actively supported by political forces, organisations and American money. They are continuing now, but there are no political figures there, and therefore there is no goal either. Hopes for external pressure have not materialised.

Moreover, what proved most painful for the protesters was that a significant part of Georgian society did not side with them. This happened because of the aggression, violent actions and overall political stance.

This view can be put very simply: ‘You are either with us or against us,’ which means that you are enemies, you are ‘Russian elements’. For many people who may not support the Georgian Dream government, such aggressive rhetoric proved unacceptable. Therefore, these protests will continue for as long as possible, most likely until the 2028 parliamentary elections, at which the Georgian Dream will completely crush this opposition.

At present, around 20–50 people gather there every day at about 9 p.m., mostly the same people. They take photographs with politically and opposition-minded journalists and then publish the material online. On Saturdays, when the so-called Saturday march takes place, around 150–250 people gather. But this happens only once a week, and those are also mostly the same people. Those who initially took part in the protests because of certain political views have long since stopped participating in these rallies,” Sikharulidze said.

Political secretary of the United Neutral Georgia party and political scientist Bidzina Giorgobiani believes that the rallies, which have been continuing for nearly 700 days, can hardly be called protests anymore.

“As Shalva Papuashvili correctly noted, this is now more of a ritual funded by certain embassies in Tbilisi and non-governmental organisations. Some small parties that receive support from Brussels are also involved. Several dozen people gather in front of parliament in the evenings, waving Ukrainian, European and American flags and seeking to demonstrate that the supposedly pro-Western opposition is protesting against a ‘pro-Russian regime’ in Georgia. But from the perspective of a reasonable person, this now looks more like a symbolic and unserious ritual than a political process.

At the same time, the support the protesters receive from Western circles is telling. Around 30 people gather in front of parliament, while in the European Parliament, some committee or press spokesperson mentions these protesters. This gives what is happening an even more formal character.

Meanwhile, much more significant processes are taking place around us. The South Caucasus is an important land route from Central Asia towards Europe and other markets. The communications routes passing through Azerbaijan and Georgia are of great interest to the European Union and other international actors.

There is simply no time now for these so-called protesters, whose demands for snap elections are being voiced at a time when Georgia is about a year and a half away from its next scheduled elections, while they continue to repeat the demands of 2024. Therefore, I fully share Mr Papuashvili’s assessment and believe that this has now become some kind of sect,” Giorgobiani concluded.