Still far from peace: What the latest US-Russia-Ukraine talks revealed Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The latest round of talks involving US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow and Kyiv failed to produce any significant breakthrough toward ending the war in Ukraine. For Witkoff and Kushner, it was their fifth visit to Moscow since the start of the war and their first to Kyiv.

In Kyiv, Witkoff and Kushner met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, members of his administration, and national security advisers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. They presented updated versions of the proposed peace documents, incorporating changes made after negotiations broke down in February amid US strikes on Iran.

Although Witkoff described the talks as “good,” no breakthrough was achieved. The sides reportedly believe the war is unlikely to end before winter.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who held talks with Witkoff and Kushner for more than three hours, continues to demand control over the entire Donbas and reportedly expects Russian forces to capture the remaining 20% of the Donetsk region by the end of the year.

According to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Putin said Russian forces had made “successful real progress,” called for the “root causes of the conflict” to be addressed, and expressed confidence that Russia would achieve its objectives.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said Ukraine has no intention of ceding territory to Russia, arguing that the territorial issue should ultimately be resolved by the leaders of the two countries.

“The Donbas issue is not just about Donbas. Between us, I believe this is the central question of this war — a war of survival and attrition,” he said.

With negotiations now continuing under US mediation, a key question remains: can the renewed diplomatic effort lead to at least a partial halt to airstrikes and fighting along the front line?

Ukrainian political and military commentators shared their assessments of the latest developments with Caliber.Az.

Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Centre for Applied Political Studies, stressed that, for now, the latest diplomatic effort is primarily an attempt by the Donald Trump administration to revive negotiations in a trilateral format involving the United States, Russia and Ukraine.

“The talks can resume only after September 20, following the elections to the Russian State Duma. However, this does not guarantee a peace agreement. The Kremlin does not want to end the war; on the contrary, it is preparing for an escalation. Zelenskyy understands this well. That is why, during talks with the Americans in Kyiv, he said that hostilities would most likely continue through the winter.

Kyiv will use every opportunity to resume negotiations. For the Kremlin, however, continuing the talks is a tactical game with Trump and a means of exerting political pressure on Ukraine in an attempt to push it towards concessions, both militarily and diplomatically. Therefore, the likelihood of an agreement to freeze the war in the coming months is extremely low,” Fesenko said.

The head of the Ukrainian Policy Foundation, analyst and historian Konstantin Bondarenko, in turn, said that Witkoff and Kushner’s visit demonstrated that the sides remain a long way from reaching a peace agreement.

“Russia is raising the stakes and demanding that the United States put pressure on Ukraine. Ukraine is categorically rejecting compromises and says it is prepared to continue the war, although Zelenskyy has virtually no resources left. At the same time, public dissatisfaction with the authorities is growing and could reach a point that triggers mass protests. For Zelenskyy, the war is also a matter of preserving his grip on power and maintaining the stability of the regime.

The most the sides could achieve in October would be tactical agreements, such as an energy or maritime ceasefire. It is becoming increasingly clear that a full-fledged peace can come only in one of two cases — a change of power in Kyiv or Moscow,” Bondarenko said.