Pashinyan vs. Etchmiadzin: calm before the storm? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Recently, the relative passivity of Nikol Pashinyan in the war declared by the Armenian Church has become quite evident, according to the newspaper Past.

“Moreover, Pashinyan participates in liturgies where the name of the Catholicos of All Armenians, Garegin II, is mentioned, even though just a few weeks ago he stated that this was a matter of principle for him. According to our sources, a significant role in this ‘pause’ by Pashinyan was played not only by electoral considerations but also by a recently published IRI poll, the results of which the authorities reviewed in advance.

According to the poll conducted in February 2026, 61 per cent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the actions of the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC). In June 2025, this figure was 58 per cent. This indicates that the anti-church campaign of the current authorities, the use of law enforcement ‘tools’ against priests, and other measures of pressure are not producing the results Pashinyan desires, and, if anything, are having the opposite effect.

According to the information we have, this does not mean that Pashinyan has stopped the anti-church campaign. On the contrary, as our sources report, they have now moved to actions ‘from below,’ in particular tracking the financial flows of the AAC and trying to find ‘dirt’—in other words, collecting a substantial ‘dossier’ to strike at the church with renewed force when the time comes,” the publication notes.

What are the reasons behind what is happening? Is the relative easing of the campaign against the Catholicos and his circle a result of a strategy based on pre-election calculations? Will Pashinyan be able to secure the reappointment (or reelection) of the church’s leadership before the elections approach?

Renowned regional experts have sought to answer these questions for Caliber.Az.

Armenian analyst and Honorary President of the Yerevan Press Club, Boris Navasardyan, stated that it is not entirely accurate to call Nikol Pashinyan’s campaign an anti-church one.

“Although it is undoubtedly aimed at increasing the role of the secular authorities in Armenian society at the expense of Etchmiadzin’s influence, the target of the Prime Minister and his team is not so much the church as an institution, but rather the segment of the hierarchy that does not accept the ‘supremacy’ of the current political leadership. This is also evidenced by preliminary information indicating that in the draft of the new Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, which is expected to be published in March, the provision on the special status of the Armenian Apostolic Church will be preserved.

At the same time, in the confrontation between the ruling Civil Contract party and the Catholicos of All Armenians, Garegin II, along with the majority of bishops supporting him, there has actually been a certain pause. The results of the latest IRI poll, which show that the AAC remains the institution with the greatest authority among Armenian citizens, may have had some influence on this, but hardly a decisive one.

The main reason for the timeout is most likely that both opposing sides have achieved their minimum objectives, but fell short of the maximum results they desired.

Through a series of exposés, the arrest of four archbishops and one of the Catholicos’ brothers, systematic accusations against Etchmiadzin of political interference, and the partial disruption of a bishops’ assembly in Austria, Pashinyan managed to neutralise the active involvement of opposition-minded clergymen in the electoral process. Meanwhile, the Catholicos was able to maintain the loyalty of the majority of influential hierarchs,” the expert explained.

According to him, another significant factor that contributed to the “truce” may have been the condemnation of the Armenian authorities’ actions against church representatives by a number of influential figures in the Armenian diaspora.

“Among them were those whose support could be crucial for Firebird’s search for investors for the data processing centre being created in Armenia with the assistance of the Trump administration. This project is one of the key initiatives for the country’s economic development…

In any case, a resumption of the confrontation should be expected after the parliamentary elections. The anticipated victory of the Civil Contract party is likely to inspire the party and its leader to make new attempts to win over Etchmiadzin’s loyalty,” Navasardyan believes.

Conflict expert, Doctor of International Relations, and professor at the Georgian Technical University, Amiran Khevtsuriani, agrees that tensions surrounding the Armenian Church have noticeably decreased recently.

“Of course, it is evident that Pashinyan’s team has taken a pause. The main reason for this is the upcoming parliamentary elections, in which, according to recent polls, his party is leading. However, the support reflected in the polls does not guarantee an outright victory.

On the other hand, it is important to note that the religious issue—both in Georgia and in Armenia—is highly sensitive. Historically, this organisation enjoys strong support, so an open confrontation by Pashinyan against the top hierarchical circle of the Armenian Church could prove a strategic mistake. At the same time, it should be noted that Pashinyan’s international standing has increased significantly recently, which could undoubtedly have a positive impact on the upcoming elections.

Armenia has a chance to break the chain of isolation that has hindered the country’s development for more than three decades. Moreover, thanks to Pashinyan, Armenia now has an opportunity to move significantly closer to the European Union and eventually become a member. Thus, in June, the people of Armenia will face an important historical choice,” Khevtsuriani concluded.