Russia advances, Ukraine faces mounting challenges Why Kyiv has little reason for optimism 

The July battlefield assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) may appear encouraging for Ukraine at first glance: the pace of Russian troop advances has noticeably slowed compared with the same period last year. However, a closer analysis reveals a much more troubling dynamic hidden behind the dry figures: the Russian military’s advance, though slow and achieved at an enormous cost — with around 42,860 total casualties reported over the past month — is continuing.

Moreover, the Russian army is adapting, changing its tactics, and continuing to implement a strategy of gradual pressure. Looking at the battlefield map without emotional bias, one conclusion becomes clear: new areas in Ukraine’s Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions are already coming under Russian control.

Thus, despite the fact that attempts to break through toward Kostiantynivka have not formally resulted in operational success, the very nature of the objective — expanding the zone of pressure — indicates that the Russian command has not abandoned its offensive approach. Even without achieving major breakthroughs, it continues to create sustained attritional pressure on Ukrainian defences.

At the same time, an even more dangerous process is unfolding — the transformation of the war’s depth. Kyiv, which for a long time remained relatively distant from the front line, is now effectively becoming a frontline city, as military expert Oleksandr Musiienko openly stated.

In this context, it is no longer a matter of isolated attacks, but rather the systematic use by Russia of missiles, including S-400 systems, as well as combined strikes involving dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for instance, cited the following figures: over the course of one week, Russia launched 1,900 drones, nearly 1,600 guided aerial bombs, and 144 missiles.

These figures demonstrate not only the scale of the attacks but also a qualitative shift in the nature of the war. Russia is increasingly investing in ballistic capabilities, expanding production, and relying on weapons against which Ukraine continues to have limited means of countering.

It is precisely this factor that is causing the greatest concern among experts. If the trend continues, Kyiv risks turning into a territory where a significant part of the city could become unsuitable for normal life.

Even now, large-scale infrastructure damage is being recorded: around 1,500 facilities, including residential buildings, have been damaged in a single week. This is not only a military strategy but also a form of deliberate psychological pressure.

Against this backdrop, questions are increasingly being raised about the Ukrainian leadership, particularly regarding President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s earlier pledge to produce 3,000 Ukrainian missiles by the end of 2025. Such questions are understandable, as amid the growing missile threat, the lack of clear reporting on this issue appears especially concerning. As the saying goes, Ukrainian society is waiting for answers — but they have not been provided.

Ukraine, of course, is also carrying out strikes, with attacks reported on Russian oil refineries and logistical facilities, including Wildberries complexes. These actions inflict certain damage on Russia, but they do not alter the broader strategic picture — the Russian offensive continues.

Additional pressure on Ukraine’s resilience is coming from economic challenges, such as the situation surrounding the Chervonohrad Central Processing Plant, which has been idle for eight months, threatening the operation of coal mines and the country’s stable coal supply ahead of the heating season. Such disruptions take on critical importance under wartime conditions.

The political and administrative dimension also deserves separate attention. According to The Atlantic, the resignation of Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister dealt a serious blow to negotiations with Elon Musk, as the former minister had managed to establish working relations with the SpaceX CEO and secure the disabling of Starlink access for Russian forces — a decision of strategic importance.

Moreover, Fedorov had also discussed the possibility of using Starlink to target ballistic missile launch sites on Russian territory. This could have become an important element in countering missile strikes. However, after his dismissal, the negotiations came to a halt — Musk reportedly refused further contacts with Zelenskyy, further complicating the situation.

Taken together, all these factors paint an extremely difficult and alarming picture for Ukraine: Russia continues its offensive despite suffering heavy losses, while Ukraine is facing mounting pressure both on the battlefield and in the rear. The missile threat is intensifying, the economy is under severe strain, and government decisions are raising an increasing number of questions.

At the same time, the key conclusion is that the current dynamics leave no room for complacency — either for the Ukrainian state or for a number of experts from different countries who have rushed to declare a “turning point” in the war. An opponent’s slow advance is still an advance, and unless there are qualitative changes in strategy, resource allocation, and decision-making mechanisms, the risks facing Ukraine will only continue to grow.