Russia to set terms for Pashinyan on Armenian railways Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The recent visit of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Russia continues to attract significant attention. According to several media reports, during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Armenian leader stated that “achieved peace will open new opportunities for the further development of bilateral relations between Armenia and Russia.” At a minimum, he expects Russian participation in the restoration of the railway infrastructure linking Armenia with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, especially since these routes are under the control of the South Caucasus Railway (SCR), a subsidiary of Russian Railways. However, Yerevan appears to be planning the construction of the railway line along the TRIPP route without Moscow’s involvement.

Moreover, in a conversation with journalists on December 18, Pashinyan stated that he had asked his Russian colleagues to urgently undertake the full restoration of the railway on the sections from Yeraskh to the Nakhchivan border with Azerbaijan, and from Akhurik to the border with Türkiye. He added that in the near future he would also raise the issue of the Ijevan–Gazakh section. The prime minister also expressed hope that his Russian colleagues would implement this request.

It is interesting to consider how Moscow will respond to the Armenian prime minister’s statements. Will Russia see any benefit for itself, and what might it demand in return? And how should Baku react to the emergence of a new player in the matter of unblocking and constructing regional transport links? Caliber.Az explores these questions with an Azerbaijani political analyst and a Russian economist.

According to Azerbaijani political analyst Ahmad Alili, following the signing of the Washington agreements, Armenian diplomacy found itself in a difficult position, as the issue of unblocking transport routes—including railways—on Armenian territory has become pressing, requiring significant investments and resources from Yerevan.

"If we look at the situation in detail, it becomes clear that in southern Armenia there is currently a presence of Russia, the United States, and the European Union—represented by France, Germany, and other countries through the EU mission—as well as Iran. At one time, Yerevan believed that inviting all these international players to the south of the country was strategically advantageous, while hoping to somehow use them as a counterbalance to Azerbaijan, in case Baku, according to Armenian fears, took certain steps. As a result, the situation today is such that all these forces need to coexist in some way. Pashinyan’s invitation to Russia to participate in the region as a technical player—such as handling the restoration of railways—is a kind of tactical move by Yerevan aimed at leveraging the situation to its maximum benefit. For this reason, in my view, Baku should now closely monitor the actions of Armenian diplomacy—who it invites to the region and in what capacity, and how this aligns with Azerbaijan’s interests," said the political analyst.

He also reminded that Azerbaijan has a condition: ensuring the safe movement of people and goods through Armenian territory via the corridor. At the same time, Baku has repeatedly emphasised that Armenia is free to invite third parties to carry out transport projects on its territory. However, it is clear that Yerevan will still need to coordinate such a format of cooperation with Baku, at least in areas where it intersects with Azerbaijani interests. 

"One way or another, I seriously doubt that Azerbaijan and Türkiye will be willing to cooperate with Russia on unblocking transport routes if it attempts to act as an equal player on the Zangezur Corridor. At the same time, the Russian side understands that it has long lacked a full presence in the South Caucasus, and the opportunity to participate in the restoration of Armenian transport infrastructure seems tempting from the perspective of increasing its influence in the region. However, the question is different: ‘Does Russia, and Russian Railways in Armenia, currently have the resources for this, given that Russia is even diplomatically weak in the South Caucasus?’ I think that if Moscow does take on this work, it will negotiate with Pashinyan on its own terms—for example, in exchange for restoring sections of the Armenian railways, it may demand from Yerevan the ability to strengthen its role and position in the TRIPP project. And here, one must be extremely cautious," said the political analyst.

According to Russian expert on Eurasia and economist Alexander Razuvaev, it is quite obvious that Russia will respond positively to Armenia’s proposal.

"Russia undoubtedly sees a number of advantages in this, for example, that Russian Railways will earn additional revenue from repairing Armenian railways. The financial situation of Russian Railways has worsened this year, so Yerevan’s funds will be welcome. I even admit that, due to declining revenues, Russian Railways might go public next year with an IPO [initial public offering - ed.], selling its shares on the stock market.

And, of course, the main factor is geopolitics. Through Armenia’s proposal, Russia preserves its position in the South Caucasus. Moscow can only welcome Yerevan’s move toward reconciliation with its neighbours: less geopolitical headache for Russia, which currently has other important priorities beyond the South Caucasus. It is also a very sensible move by the Armenian leadership: making peace with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, acknowledging its defeat in the 44-day war, is the best course of action in this situation. Above all, because it will increase the income of Armenian citizens and strengthen Armenia’s economy," Razuvaev concluded.