Türkiye: A key factor in European security Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

On November 28 in Berlin, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his German counterpart, Johann Wadephul, held a joint press conference, during which several rather interesting statements were made, including on the issue of the Republic of Türkiye’s EU membership.

At the press conference, Wadephul, in particular, stated that, “If Türkiye wants to join the EU, Germany will be a reliable and friendly partner.”

“Türkiye plays a key role in many areas, so it is clear that strengthening cooperation between the European Union and Türkiye is in our interest,” he added, also expressing confidence that “the EU’s SAFE programme should be open to Türkiye and the United Kingdom as important NATO allies.”

Given the tone and context of these statements, it can be argued that Europe is in great need of cooperation with Türkiye in the field of security and defence initiatives, and in return is ready to support the country’s EU membership bid, which has been gathering dust on the desks of Eurobureaucrats for decades.

Is there really a chance that, thanks to Germany’s efforts, a historic moment could soon occur—Türkiye joining the EU? German and Turkish political analysts answer this question for Caliber.Az.

The well-known German political analyst and Chairman of the Eurasian Society of Germany, Alexander Rahr, believes that Türkiye has once again become necessary to the European Union as an important factor in the European security system.

“The question of liberal values as a criterion no longer plays the same role. Berlin and Brussels need Türkiye for militarisation against Russia. But the next question arises: ‘What will an alliance with the EU bring to Türkiye itself?’” he said.

In his view, Europe is playing the long game: Erdoğan will not move against Russia, but the EU believes that change will come soon, and progressive, pro-European politicians will come to power in Ankara. “Türkiye is a very significant country for the expansion of the European Union, but the whole issue lies in the Turkish economy, which is not growing. Experts believe it would be more advantageous for the Turks to join the EU in order to improve their situation and wellbeing.”

Meanwhile, Göktuğ Çalışkan, an international relations expert at the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM), believes that the visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister to Germany and the high-level contacts between Fidan and his German counterpart once again confirm the authority of Turkish foreign policy in Europe.

“When analysing these meetings and the statements that followed, it becomes clear that a door has opened to a new, more rational era in Türkiye–EU relations. The German minister’s emphasis on ‘trust-based partnership’ and his remarks on the possibility of Ankara joining the European Union clearly demonstrate that Berlin recognises the indispensability of the Republic of Türkiye.

From a geopolitical perspective, this process is not a ‘historic opportunity’ granted to Ankara, but rather a demonstration of Europe’s acute need for Türkiye for its own survival. Germany’s position, as a driving force in this matter, is justified by the fact that the security and prosperity architecture of continental Europe can only be strengthened with Türkiye’s participation.

Ankara approaches this situation with strategic maturity, assessing the extended hand in terms of equal and fair partnership. Instead of portraying itself as a passive candidate at the negotiation table, our country prioritises a model of active cooperation with clearly defined rules and boundaries, based on a ‘win–win’ principle,” the political analyst stated.

He emphasised that in this context, the SAFE mechanism and similar security architectures, which have been brought to the forefront, are doomed to remain incomplete without Türkiye’s approval and participation, as the country alone holds NATO’s southern flank.

“Domestic and national initiatives of the Turkish defence industry, which have become global brands, place Ankara in the position of a natural leader and originator of such strategic equations. As long as Türkiye sees genuine solidarity from its allies, it supports all initiatives that contribute to Euro-Atlantic security and positions its defence capabilities as a guarantee of regional stability,” the expert noted.

The political analyst also believes that Türkiye’s approach to EU membership is no longer an “existential issue” but rather a “strategic choice.”

“A multidimensional foreign policy vision, spanning from the Organisation of Turkic States to African initiatives, has allowed Ankara to diversify its options and become a game-changing player on the global stage. Today, we are dealing with a powerful Türkiye that is not merely waiting at Brussels’ doorstep, but building its own axis and possessing the authority to negotiate. This new era should not be seen as a period of Türkiye’s dependence on the EU, but as a search for strategic alignment between two strong actors in the face of global challenges,” Çalışkan concluded.