OPEC report maintains stable outlook on oil demand despite supply concerns

Latest projections by OPEC show that global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 in accordance with previous forecasts.

The latest monthly report forecasts outputs to reach 106.53 million bpd.

In its updated report, OPEC made only minor adjustments to its projections for global oil demand: for 2025, the forecast was revised from 105.14 million bpd to 105.15 million bpd; for 2026, from 106.52 million bpd to 106.53 million bpd; and for 2027, from 107.86 million bpd to 107.87 million bpd.

As a result, demand growth next year compared to the projected level for the current year could reach 1.34 million bpd, in line with the estimate OPEC made last month.

According to OPEC analysts, non-OECD countries will remain the main drivers of global oil consumption growth. In 2026, they are expected to account for 1.23 million bpd of the increase, and 1.24 million bpd in 2027. Meanwhile, OECD countries are expected to contribute only 150,000 bpd to global demand growth this year and 110,000 bpd in 2027.

Preliminary data for January shows that OECD commercial oil inventories fell by 19.9 million barrels month-on-month to 2.824 billion barrels. This is 70.5 million barrels higher than the same month last year and 9.8 million barrels above the five-year average, but 103.1 million barrels below the 2015–2019 average, which serves as the reference level for the OPEC+ agreement regulating commercial stock levels.

Specifically, OECD petroleum product inventories declined by 16.9 million barrels in January compared with December, reaching 1.511 billion barrels, while crude oil stocks fell by 3 million barrels to 1.313 billion barrels.

By Nazrin Sadigova