Media: Iran’s nuclear risk now higher than pre-war levels

The risk that Iran is covertly pursuing nuclear weapons is higher today than before US and Israeli military strikes, according to Western officials citing new data circulated by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

A restricted IAEA document seen by Bloomberg indicates that Iran’s large stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium is now subject to greater proliferation concerns, as international inspectors have lost continuous oversight following the conflict.

The report highlights that prior to the June 2025 air campaign — which escalated into a 12-day war involving the United States and Israel — the material was under weekly inspection to ensure it was not diverted for weapons use. That level of verification has since collapsed.

According to the document, the agency “can’t draw any conclusion regarding this nuclear material,” adding: “This gives rise to a proliferation concern as this nuclear material, which the agency was not able to verify, includes a large amount of high- enriched uranium.”

The IAEA warns that inspections have fallen sharply, with monitors unable to return to key sites at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz. The agency last verified Iran’s holdings at 440.9 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and 8,599.6 kilograms of lower enriched material.

Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said the agency is no longer directly involved in political negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. “We are not a party to this negotiation. We participated until the last round which ended in February,” he said.

He added: “Something that is not verifiable will lead to a bad agreement.”

Officials cited in the report said the absence of continuous monitoring increases the risk that material could be diverted for non-peaceful purposes, particularly as diplomatic efforts remain stalled.

The findings come as Western governments reassess the consequences of last year’s military escalation, which some officials say has created new verification gaps rather than resolving the underlying nuclear dispute.

US President Donald Trump has maintained that Iran’s nuclear programme was “obliterated”, while also suggesting that remaining uranium stocks could be exported or rendered inert under international supervision.

By Aghakazim Guliyev