What is left of Iran’s missile arsenal?

Despite relentless airstrikes and total control of the skies, Iran is still firing ballistic missiles — underscoring how difficult it is to eliminate a dispersed and deeply entrenched missile network.

The United States and Israel have established what officials describe as full air superiority over Iran, carrying out continuous strikes against ballistic missile infrastructure. Yet military sources acknowledge that the campaign to dismantle Tehran’s missile-launch capabilities is far from over, Defense Express outlines.

According to figures published by Ynet, citing an unnamed official, Iran began the conflict with an estimated 460 ballistic missile launchers. As of March 8, roughly 150 were believed to remain operational — meaning about 30% of the original force is still intact.

Israeli and US aircraft have been targeting launchers, storage sites, command centres and underground facilities around the clock. However, Iranian forces are reportedly attempting to clear debris from tunnels used to conceal launch systems, prompting continued strikes aimed at preventing their recovery.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has stated that Iran’s missile capability can no longer function at full capacity following the destruction of key commanders, headquarters, launch positions and logistical hubs. Even so, Tehran retains the ability to conduct missile attacks, albeit at a reduced tempo.

Israel’s General Staff has signaled that the operation could last up to a month, warning that ending it prematurely could allow Iran to rebuild its missile capacity quickly — potentially with assistance from China and North Korea.

Military analysts say the campaign highlights the inherent difficulty of locating and destroying mobile ballistic missile launchers, particularly when they are dispersed, camouflaged or hidden in hardened underground facilities. Despite extensive use of satellites, drones, reconnaissance aircraft and dozens of fighter jets operating over Iranian territory, a significant portion of launch systems remains active.

At the same time, US and Israeli officials maintain that their strategic objective remains unchanged: neutralising the missile threat posed by Tehran.

Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles not only toward Israel but also toward Gulf states, though at a slower pace than during the early days of the conflict. The scale of the campaign has been most clearly documented by the United Arab Emirates, which has provided regular data on missile interceptions.

By March 8, Iran had launched approximately 238 ballistic missiles toward the UAE, with a peak of 17 missiles detected in a single day, according to official Emirati statistics.

Security experts note that after sustaining significant losses, Iran appears to have adapted its tactics. Despite reported disruptions to its command structure, it has continued to conduct missile operations and may now be employing countermeasures designed to complicate aerial targeting efforts.

As a result, dismantling the remaining 30% of Iran’s launch capability could prove more challenging and time-consuming than destroying the initial 70%. Analysts further caution that neutralising long-range drone launch infrastructure — often even more dispersed and harder to detect — may present an even more complex task.

For now, while air dominance has shifted the balance decisively in favour of Washington and Jerusalem, the persistence of missile launches underscores a central reality of modern warfare: eliminating a deeply embedded missile network is a prolonged and uncertain undertaking.

By Sabina Mammadli