“Azerbaijan cannot be subjugated to Moscow's whims” Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

A propagandist from Russia’s Channel One, Ruslan Ostashko, openly declared that the strike on the Orlivka compressor station in Ukraine’s Odesa region was “a signal from Moscow to Baku.” According to him, any attempts by Azerbaijan to “establish supply routes bypassing Russia,” even using existing infrastructure, “will be stopped.”

What does this mean? What is Moscow trying to achieve with such a “clever” move? Caliber.Az posed these questions to well-known commentators.

Yevhen Mahda, Director of the Kyiv Institute of Global Policy, believes that the issue is not only that a massive strike with Shahed drones was launched on Orlivka—a well-known gas metering station that enables gas transit to Ukraine via the Southern Corridor from Azerbaijan.

“In this case, the Kremlin is putting on a brave face in a losing game. Because the real question is not about how to deliver the gas. I believe that, technologically, these alternatives are feasible—yes, perhaps at a slightly higher cost. The real issue is that Russia has lost its ability to influence the situation in Ukraine. For instance, since January, no Russian gas has been transported via Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System (GTS). And Russia, quite frankly, hasn’t been able to do anything about it,” the expert noted.

He believes we are now in a situation where resisting Russia’s blackmail is crucial for any post-Soviet state—especially amid the anticipated normalisation between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“This, in fact, is the main point. Because if a peace agreement is even symbolically outlined—let alone signed—in the presence of Donald Trump, it will be a powerful slap in the face for the Kremlin. After all, Moscow spent many years exploiting the conflict between the two South Caucasus republics for its own gain. That period is coming to an end—permanently. And the formalisation of Kremlin interests now looks rather ridiculous. In my view, this is just howling from the swamp—and it’s not worth paying attention to,” Mahda concluded.

Member of the Azerbaijani parliament and political analyst Rasim Musabayov, in turn, stated bluntly that “Ostashko is simply a fool.”

“The fact that his nonsense is being broadcast on Channel One is evidence that, unfortunately, in the Kremlin, decisions are driven not by reason but by malice. I don’t believe Azerbaijan can be subjugated to any of Moscow’s ‘whims’ on this basis—let alone re-establish mutually beneficial partnerships with Gazprom.

I mean, how can someone spout such nonsense and then expect to run a pipeline through Azerbaijan or use existing infrastructure to pump gas—which Russia currently has no outlet for (about 60 billion cubic metres remain unused)—through Azerbaijani territory to Iran? Do these kinds of statements align with one another? Of course not. That’s why I think Ruslan Ostashko can shove his little thoughts back into his trousers. Serious matters will be decided not based on the kind of foolishness that, unfortunately, now dominates Russian propaganda,” the MP concluded.