US–Azerbaijan: From investments to security and regional partnership Expert weighs in

As diplomatic momentum builds around a potential peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan, the United States is stepping up its engagement in the South Caucasus. In this brief interview with Caliber.Az, Russian-Israeli political analyst Konstantin Pakhalyuk offers insight into Washington’s growing interest in the region, Azerbaijan’s strategic opportunities, and the broader implications for regional security and cooperation — from IT investments to possible participation in the Abraham Accords.

— Mr. Pakhalyuk, how do you assess the information about the planned initialling of the peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan in Washington? How might this affect regional security in the South Caucasus?

— We are witnessing a mutual movement by both sides toward a peace treaty, and the Western press consistently emphasises that this is happening without Russia and, in fact, in opposition to it. Initialling is still only the endorsement of the content, not the actual signing. There are quite a few issues on this path, especially regarding whether Pashinyan, given his declining popularity, can see the process through to the end.

— In your view, what has sparked the Trump administration’s interest in the South Caucasus?

— Trump wants to be seen as a peacemaker. In fact, the United States has always regarded the South Caucasus and Central Asia as zones of limited presence, maintained through its allies, with attempts to push out other major powers.

On the other hand, following the events of 2020–2023, the main cause of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has disappeared — the war resolved the issue. That’s why Trump’s team has decided that the "apple" of the peace agreement is about to fall into their hands, and they must be ready to catch it in time.

— What prospects does deeper cooperation with the United States open up for Azerbaijan?

— At this stage, it is about ensuring the transformation of military success into a stable peace agreement. The media are abuzz with reports about potential U.S. involvement in transport projects, but it's too early to say anything definitive. Nevertheless, certain strategic cooperation groups are already indicating areas of focus — investments (especially in IT), security, and the development of regional partnerships.

— There is information that Trump may suspend the enforcement of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act…

— Under Donald Trump's presidency, I consider this entirely possible.

— Can it be said that the signing of a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan is just around the corner?

— The border demarcation process is not yet complete and is fraught with major technical difficulties. Nor have amendments to the Armenian Constitution taken place — and are unlikely to happen before next year’s parliamentary elections. Baku has taken quite a firm stance, and for good reason. However, the weakening of Pashinyan’s position, despite his apparent willingness to negotiate, may backfire significantly. That is why the current moment presents a real opportunity to reach an agreement.

— What can you say about the likelihood of Baku joining the Abraham Accords, an initiative promoted by the United States?

— This is a kind of attempt by the U.S. to encourage Azerbaijan to make a symbolic gesture toward Israel. Our two countries have maintained a partnership across various fields for quite some time, and cooperation continues to develop. I believe such a gesture would be positively received in Israel.