Rails of trust: grain transit signals new Armenia–Azerbaijan dynamics Armenian experts on Caliber.Az

The agreements reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington on August 8, 2025, have found real implementation both in the trade sphere and in the transport and logistics sector.

Thus, on March 11, a freight train consisting of 11 wagons carrying Russian grain was dispatched to Armenia from the Bilajari station located in the suburbs of Baku. Earlier, on March 9, seven wagons with similar cargo were sent as well. In total, to date, more than 22,000 tons of grain (320 wagons) and 610 tons of fertilisers (9 wagons) have been delivered from Russia to Armenia through the territory of Azerbaijan. In addition, Azerbaijan has begun exporting its fuel to the neighbouring republic.

All these developments raise logical questions: “Is what is happening a signal that Baku and Yerevan are preparing to intensify bilateral import-export relations?” and “If this happens in the near future, what range of goods will be presented in the markets of the two countries?”

Armenian experts and political analysts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Boris Navasardyan, honorary president of the Yerevan Press Club and an Armenian political analyst, believes that the delivery of a new batch of Russian grain to Armenia by rail through Azerbaijani territory is a significant development for several reasons.

“First, it creates another precedent for freeing Armenia from the extremely unreliable transit of cargo via Georgia’s motor roads.

Second, this development indicates that the countries of the region are becoming aware of the need for effective cooperation at a time when familiar schemes are collapsing and traditional trade and transport routes are being disrupted.

Third, as the past months have shown, the gradual process of normalising Armenian-Azerbaijani relations requires periodic reinforcement with positive news, since a shortage of such developments may lead to growing scepticism and public distrust on both sides,” he said.

The political analyst also emphasised that he would not overestimate the economic significance of these deliveries, noting that for now they are driven more by politics than by economics.

“Ultimately, this is more a manifestation of goodwill at the political level than a matter of commercial calculation. The purely economic component will begin to function fully only when private entrepreneurs in the two countries gain the opportunity to explore each other’s markets, when channels for direct bank transfers are opened, and, of course, when there is no longer a need for transit through a third country despite the fact that the two states share the longest border in the region. It is clear, however, that the latter factor — unlike the first two — is not a matter for the near future,” the analyst said.

In his view, the absence of trade relations for decades does not yet provide sufficient grounds to predict a broad range of goods that could eventually find their way from Armenia to Azerbaijan and vice versa.

“Therefore, it is extremely important to establish direct contacts between businesspeople and producers from the two countries. Many years ago, within the framework of peace initiatives, the potential economic benefits for regional states in the event of overcoming the conflict were studied, and today these assessments are gaining clear relevance.

If at the initial stage the attractiveness of products may be stimulated by factors such as novelty and consumer curiosity, the formation of sustainable demand and realistic pricing will require proactive steps, including trade exhibitions, sales fairs, and cross-border trade facilities.

Just a few months ago, such ideas might have seemed like something out of the realm of fantasy, but recent breakthrough initiatives at the level of experts, representatives of civil society, and the media have expanded the boundaries of what is possible,” Navasardyan stated.

Meanwhile, Armenian political expert Areg Kochinyan, head of the Armenian Council research centre and a member of the Bridge of Peace initiative, believes that Russian grain continues to be supplied to Armenia in roughly the same volumes. However, he notes that the geography of these deliveries is changing. Whereas previously Russian grain was transported exclusively through Georgia, the process is now increasingly taking place via Azerbaijan.

“As for the goods that could be of interest to both the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides, as far as I understand, at this stage the leadership of the two countries has concluded that products reaching the final buyer — the ordinary consumer — may not be received positively. For example, goods labelled Made in Armenia or Made in Azerbaijan and sold in retail stores could provoke negative reactions. Therefore, Baku and Yerevan have not yet moved on to a substantive discussion of such deliveries.

At present, the focus is more on bulk and loose goods, as well as various types of raw materials. In this regard, particularly in the context of exports from Armenia to Azerbaijan, one could primarily speak about supplies of aluminium, foil, and other types of industrial products,” Kochinyan concluded.