EU and migrants: the age of illusions is over Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The European Parliament has voted to begin negotiations with the Council of the EU on tightening migration policy. The new law provides for the creation of detention centres for migrants outside the European Union, the accelerated deportation of individuals who do not have the right to asylum, as well as the conclusion of agreements with third countries. The initiative was supported by a majority of MEPs.

A key element of the reform is the “Return Regulation”, which is seen as the main instrument for increasing the number of deportations of individuals who do not have a legal right to remain in the EU, and as a cornerstone of the new European approach to combating illegal migration.

The document allows EU countries to return illegal migrants to third countries not linked to their country of origin, provided there are bilateral agreements with non-EU states where so-called “return centres” will be established.

The final version of the law will now be negotiated between the European Parliament and EU member states. It is expected that the talks will proceed without major disagreements.

Both the European Parliament and EU member states support including families with children in deportation practices to third countries, with the exception of unaccompanied minors.

It is also proposed to change the current procedure under which filing an appeal automatically suspends deportation until a final court decision is reached. The new approach envisages that the decision to suspend deportation will be taken by courts on a case-by-case basis.

Among additional measures are the introduction of a permanent entry ban for individuals posing a security threat, as well as support for an unlimited entry ban for deported migrants. At the same time, EU countries had proposed limiting this period to 20 years.

Germany’s Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, commenting on the European Parliament’s decision, said that the country intends to reach agreements with third countries on the establishment of deportation centres “by the end of this year”.

“We are now moving forward along this path in a consistent manner,” he noted.

The results of the vote were also welcomed by EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Magnus Brunner. According to him, the EU is “one step closer” to creating  “a credible migration management system”.

At the same time, the tightening of migration policy has drawn criticism from human rights organisations. They warn of the risk of systematic human rights violations, as the new rules allow for the expulsion of migrants to countries with which they have no direct connection.

And here remains a key question: will these measures be effective in the event of a new large-scale migration crisis — for example, if millions of refugees head to Europe as a result of events in the Middle East? How effective will external “return centres” be, especially since they have not even been established yet?

Leading foreign experts shared their views with Caliber.Az.

Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, consultant to the German Federal Foreign Office, political scientist and professor at the University of Bonn, noted that the migration situation in Europe is undergoing significant changes — from a policy of openness to a noticeable tightening.

“Many migrants, driven primarily by material considerations, seek to reach the most prosperous countries, which often leads to the abuse of social systems.

One of the key problems remains the near-total impossibility of deporting migrants already present on EU territory. As a preventive measure, the creation of offshore centres is being considered, which could reduce the attractiveness of entering Europe for the purpose of obtaining social benefits.

The situation is further aggravated by internal economic factors — a shrinking tax base and rising prices, including for critically important services such as healthcare,” the professor noted.

Against this backdrop, he said, right-wing parties are rapidly gaining popularity in European countries.

“Public sentiment often echoes the hardline position expressed by Viktor Orbán in his slogan ‘Enough!’. This reaction is largely driven by rising crime within migrant communities and a decline in educational levels. As a result, issues related to the rule of law are increasingly taking a back seat, while restrictions on refugees’ rights are becoming a pan-European trend.

At the same time, there is a paradox: in an effort to reduce migration pressure, Europe simultaneously supports US and Israeli military initiatives, including through arms supplies and logistical support. Such actions, in turn, trigger new waves of refugees, particularly from countries such as Libya.

Thus, the era of humanitarian illusions in Europe is over, giving way to a harsher reality that requires a reassessment of approaches to security and social stability,” Heinemann-Grüder concluded.

In turn, Anatolii Pinchuk, Chairman of the Board of the Eastern Europe Security Institute (Kyiv), believes that the tightening of EU migration legislation is not a situational measure, but a natural stage in the formation of a long-term strategy.

“This strategy is based on two key priorities — the preservation of the national identity of European states and the protection of political institutions from covert external interference and destabilisation.

In my view, most restrictive measures in this area are politically and ethically justified, with the exception of forced deportations to third countries without the consent of the migrants themselves,” he noted.

According to him, the prospects of a new migration crisis directly depend on the nature of developments in the Middle East conflict.

“Two scenarios are possible here. The first is controlled escalation. If US military actions are limited and carefully calibrated, there will be no preconditions for a large-scale migration crisis.

However, there is also a scenario of chaotic escalation. In this case, the expansion of the geography of hostilities would lead to a sharp increase in the number of refugees, and the risks of an uncontrolled influx into the EU would become a reality.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of the new migration measures will be determined not so much by their strictness, but by their capacity for practical implementation,” Pinchuk concluded.