Nuclear drills with a message Russia, Belarus, and rising NATO tensions

In today’s world, the conduct of military exercises by any country draws the attention of global actors and is most often interpreted as a demonstration of force and a certain message to adversaries.

This context also includes Russia’s exercises on the preparation and use of nuclear forces, which are being held in cooperation with the Republic of Belarus from May 19 to 21. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, “Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern and Pacific Fleets, the Long-Range Aviation Command, and elements of the Leningrad and Central Military Districts have been involved in the exercises.” All of this is taking place against the backdrop of a statement by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service that “Ukraine is preparing a series of strikes against Russia from the territory of Latvia.”

In light of this, a logical question arises: “How high is the probability of escalation of the conflict between the Russian Federation, Belarus, and a number of NATO countries in the near future?” — a question answered for Caliber.Az by a Belarusian military expert and a Russian political analyst.

The independent commentator and Belarusian defence and military-industrial expert Alexander Alesin noted that, if one returns to the historical context of the issue, the very appearance of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory was justified by Presidents Putin and Lukashenko on the grounds that Poland is planning to create the largest army in Europe, surpassing the Bundeswehr in size.

“According to the latest data, Warsaw intends to allocate $18 billion for defence needs. With these funds, it plans to purchase approximately a thousand tanks from South Korea, which will be delivered to Poland in disassembled form and assembled on its territory, as well as more than one hundred HIMARS systems, 20 of which are already in service with the Polish army, and around 250 Abrams tanks from the United States. In addition, South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace has already completed the delivery of 126 Chunmoo launchers ordered by the Polish side. Thus, a large military grouping of European NATO member states may be formed on our borders, potentially exceeding the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation in the region in terms of manpower,” he said.

According to the expert, Russia is not able to allocate such a large number of Armed Forces to counter Poland in the event of an attack on Kaliningrad and Belarus:

“Therefore, in order to neutralise this potential, it was decided to deploy Iskander-M operational-tactical missile systems in the Kaliningrad region and on Belarusian territory, which can be equipped with nuclear warheads with a yield of 20 to 50 kilotons. Given their range, it can be assumed that significant parts of Poland and Germany, as well as the Baltic states, fall within the potential destruction zone. However, as the leaders of Belarus and Russia have stated, this weapon is defensive in nature and will be used only if aggression comes from EU and NATO member states.

On the other hand, Minsk cannot independently use the Russian warheads, as all launch codes are in the possession of the Russian military leadership. However, Russia also cannot use them independently in the event of a decision, since the Iskander-M systems are located on Belarusian territory. Thus, launch is only possible by order of two presidents, which provides certain security guarantees.”

In turn, Russian political analyst Stanislav Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia Sector at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that Russia is not in a state of armed conflict only with Ukraine, as it may appear at first glance.

“Practically the entire collective West is supplying Kyiv with military equipment, providing intelligence data, and so on. Even the United States, which outwardly tries to act as a mediator, is a participant in the conflict. At the same time, if one compares the conduct of hostilities by Russia with the actions of Israel and the United States, the methods employed by the Russian side are incomparable with those of the coalition in the Middle East, where the number of civilian casualties is incomparably higher.

In such conditions, through the mentioned exercises, Russia is sending a signal, including to Western countries, that it remains a state possessing advanced nuclear weapons. This becomes a particularly important argument at a time when the Baltic states are speaking about the escalation of military actions toward the Kaliningrad region and potential strikes on the most sensitive points along Russia’s western border.

In other words, the stakes are rising, and this is precisely why the Russian Federation is demonstrating that it remains a nuclear power with sufficiently advanced means of delivering a strike if events begin to develop according to scenarios promoted by globalist circles in the West,” Pritchin said.