Rising geopolitical shocks expose North Africa’s fragile food system

Rising geopolitical tensions and climate pressures are once again exposing North Africa’s fragile food system, with analysts warning that the region remains dangerously vulnerable to external shocks despite lessons learned from past crises.

Four years after the war in Ukraine helped trigger a global food crisis, instability linked to the conflict involving Iran is already rippling through agricultural markets.

An analysis by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies cautions that the risk of another sustained surge in food prices—driven by conflict, geopolitical rivalry and climate change—continues to loom over the region.

A key pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for exports of urea, sulphur and ammonia—core ingredients in fertilisers. Disruptions there have already pushed prices higher, underlining how quickly shocks can cascade into food systems.

For North Africa, food security remains a constant balancing act between crisis management and long-term structural weakness. As the outlet recalls, the region’s vulnerability is deeply rooted.

Food security is not simply about agricultural output but reflects wider demographic, environmental and economic constraints. Domestic production struggles to meet demand, particularly for cereals, which remain central to local diets. Farming systems depend heavily on rainfall, while chronic water scarcity limits irrigation and expansion.

Import dependence varies across countries but remains high overall. Algeria relies on imports for nearly three-quarters of its food needs, while Morocco sources more than half of its cereals from abroad. Tunisia imports around 70% of its wheat, and Libya up to 90% of its cereal consumption.

Egypt—the region’s most populous nation—remains the world’s largest wheat importer, with cereals accounting for a major share of its import bill. Demographic growth is intensifying the challenge, as North Africa’s population has surged from roughly 140 million in 1950 to about 250 million in 2020 and is projected to exceed 320 million by 2050.

Rising demand for food is placing increasing strain on public finances, as governments allocate large portions of their budgets to secure imports instead of investing in domestic agriculture.

According to ISPI, environmental pressures further complicate the picture. Much of the region is classified as water-stressed, limiting agricultural expansion, while climate change is driving more frequent droughts, heatwaves and soil degradation. These factors continue to erode yields and deepen reliance on global markets.

That reliance carries significant geopolitical risks. Countries such as Egypt and Libya depend heavily on imports of wheat, oils and sugar, often sourced from major exporters like Russia and Ukraine. Algeria and Tunisia also rely on external suppliers, including French wheat, while Morocco is somewhat more resilient but still exposed during drought years.

This dependence leaves North Africa vulnerable not only to price volatility but also to political leverage, ISPI warns, from exporting nations and trade blocs such as the European Union and frameworks under the World Trade Organization.

Past food shocks—from the crises of the 1970s and 2007–2008 to the Arab Spring—have shown how rising prices can quickly fuel unrest and instability. As the ISPI analysis underscores, food dependency in North Africa is no longer just an economic concern but a strategic one.

It shapes regional power dynamics, influences diplomatic leverage, and affects governments’ ability to manage internal pressures—leaving the region exposed as global uncertainties continue to mount. 

By Nazrin Sadigova