EU–China dialogue: geopolitics without illusions? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

In recent times, there has been a noticeable intensification along the European Union–China track, as evidenced by the second meeting of the updated EU–China export control dialogue mechanism held recently in Beijing.

According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the talks were conducted by Jiang Qianliang, Director of the Bureau of Industrial Security and Export Control, and Denis Redonnet, Deputy Director-General for Trade at the European Commission. It was also emphasised that the meeting featured “deep and constructive communication in the field of export control.” Representatives from Beijing and Brussels agreed to “continue maintaining contacts and exchanges, as well as to promote the stability and smooth operation of Chinese–European industrial and supply chains.”

This trend in EU–China relations takes on particular significance against the backdrop of growing concern within the EU over the military escalation in the Middle East. In particular, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius described the war in the region as “a catastrophe for the global economy.”

So what is the essence of the negotiations between the EU and China, and are they indeed linked to the confrontation between the US–Israel bloc and Iran? This question is addressed by a China expert and a European analyst for Caliber.Az.

Thus, Kyrgyz political scientist, China expert, and Master’s graduate of Zhejiang University, Aibolot Aidosov, believes that the agreements between China and the EU demonstrate their readiness to further develop ties and mutually beneficial cooperation, as both sides stand to lose significantly and miss out on opportunities in the event of a rupture in relations: Beijing would lose access to the vast European Union market, while Brussels would risk losing access to Chinese goods and components essential for technological development.

“In essence, what we are witnessing is an attempt to manage risks that have intensified amid the conflict in the Middle East. Through these agreements, both sides are effectively testing the extent to which the EU and China can rely on one another. At the same time, the European Union is also demonstrating its sovereignty and independence from the United States, signalling that it does not fear potential sanctions Washington might impose for cooperation with Beijing,” he said.

At the same time, the expert notes that the EU has significant plans regarding China, which is capable of becoming an alternative to the United States in the supply of critical goods, particularly against the backdrop of rising oil prices.

“The European Union needs rare earth minerals, which are essential for technological development. In turn, China benefits from the fact that, despite tariffs and other restrictions, it remains present on the European market and continues to expand its footprint in Europe. According to Western partners, China could also play the role of a mediator in the Middle Eastern confrontation, thereby shielding the EU from consequences that are already affecting its economy today. However, one should not harbour excessive expectations, as the agreements between Brussels and Beijing are largely temporary in nature and could be swiftly revoked if the situation changes,” Aidosov stated.

In turn, Austrian analyst Rudolf Valeev believes that the global conflict in the Middle East is pushing the EU towards cooperation with China; however, Brussels had already embarked on a course of developing multilateral relations with Beijing even before the confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.

“President Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that the United States is beginning to view the European Union more as a competitor than as a partner. The head of the White House, virtually from the very beginning of his presidency, has stated that he wants to see the EU as an independent actor, capable of taking decisive steps in foreign policy—including economic policy—without assistance or guidance from Washington.

The policy of high tariffs on many EU goods initiated by Donald Trump has, in essence, pushed Brussels to seek new partners, setting aside ideological dogmas. Within the EU, it has become clear that in times of crisis—such as shortages of oil or other strategic resources—reliance on US assistance is no longer a given. As a result, dialogue with China represents a balanced and carefully considered strategy to mitigate risks, as Brussels needs a new major and reliable partner capable of filling the gap left by the United States. Moreover, China is willing to cooperate with Europe on terms that are highly advantageous for the Europeans.

Furthermore, in light of the war in the Middle East, China’s role has grown even more significant. Beijing currently enjoys special preferences from Iran for the unhindered transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz—advantages that the United States, Israel, and their allies do not possess. Thus, China is a key strategic player engaged across virtually all regions and continents, and cooperation with it could strengthen Europe’s position in negotiations with the United States.

In this context, the formation of an EU–China alignment could mark a new stage of pragmatic relations free from ideological narratives, where the principles of cooperation and partnership are shaped by entirely new frameworks and approaches. Washington’s reaction to such a move by Brussels is another important aspect of international politics, though it is still too early to assess,” Valeev concluded.