Armenia’s elections: a political fight without rules Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Today, the situation in Armenia is characterised by high political activity ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026.

Among the key developments in recent times are the anticipated amendments to the Electoral Code. On April 7, 2026, the Armenian Parliament approved in the first reading amendments prohibiting the use of leaders’ names in party and bloc titles. The opposition, particularly the Strong Armenia party, has criticised these changes, viewing them as an attempt by the authorities to restrict competition.

According to recent opinion polls as of April 7, around 24.3 per cent of voters are ready to vote for the ruling party of Nikol Pashinyan, Civil Contract. In second place is Strong Armenia with 13.4 per cent, while the Prosperous Armenia party ranks third with 7.9 per cent. The “Armenia” bloc of former President Robert Kocharyan has 5.5 per cent. It is noted that 51.9 per cent of respondents said they are ready to participate in the vote, while another 8.6 per cent described their participation as likely.

Meanwhile, opposition forces are staging protests outside the National Assembly building, accusing the current government of preparing to “steal” the elections through changes in legislation.

The Armenian authorities, for their part, state that they are preparing for possible hybrid threats and foreign interference in the electoral process. At the same time, Russian officials claim the right to discuss the upcoming elections within the framework of bilateral relations.

The current head of government, Nikol Pashinyan, is once again running as a candidate for prime minister from the ruling party.

Among the opposition blocs, the Strong Armenia party and other forces are actively campaigning, criticising the government’s policies amid disputes over the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) membership and issues related to border security.

The media note that the situation remains tense due to a deep societal divide and ongoing legislative initiatives that are changing the “rules of the game” just two months before the vote.

How can the pre-election environment in Armenia be generally characterised? Can one speak of clear preferences among the mass electorate? Is it possible that these preferences could shift unexpectedly closer to June 7 under the influence of actions by various political forces?

Well-known analysts have shared their views on this topic with Caliber.Az.

Candidate of Historical Sciences, Head of the Sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow), Stanislav Pritchin, notes that Pashinyan’s activity on both the domestic and foreign fronts indicates a rather tense situation.

“We are witnessing quite harsh and aggressive actions by Armenia’s ruling party against the opposition, centres of public influence, and major investment holdings that are not within Pashinyan’s sphere of loyalty. In effect, efforts are underway to discredit the leadership of the Armenian Church as an institution independent from the authorities. Similar attempts are also being made with regard to major investment projects, for example, in the energy sector and Karapetyan’s projects. This once again shows that the situation is not as favourable for Pashinyan as he would like, and he is forced to resort to tough measures in order to prevent the strengthening of the opposition.

The fact that a group of hybrid support from the European Union is also arriving in the country indicates Pashinyan’s acute need for external backing. The visit to Moscow was an attempt to demonstrate to wavering voters that the prime minister is not opposed to Russia. However, no significant agreements were reached; on the contrary, after a public discussion with Vladimir Putin, clear signals were issued by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk regarding Russia’s ‘red lines’ in Armenia’s foreign and economic policy.

In the post-Soviet space, even a strong opposition finds it much harder to win elections than the incumbent authorities. To change the situation, a unifying figure is needed—someone capable of becoming a ‘focal point’ for all those dissatisfied with Pashinyan—similar to how he himself once united protesters against the rule of Serzh Sargsyan and Robert  Kocharyan,” Pritchin noted.

Azerbaijani MP and political analyst Rasim Musabayov stated that at present, Nikol Pashinyan’s party Civil Contract maintains an advantage over the opposition forces, although this lead cannot be considered significant.

“The combined preferences of voters who have already decided to participate in the elections in favour of Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia and the so-called Strong Armenia bloc are broadly comparable. I believe the electoral campaign will be quite intense. Both Tsarukyan and, presumably, Karapetyan will actively use the practice of vote-buying, so the election results in this sense are still undetermined.

If, as a result of such actions, Nikol Pashinyan manages to have Strong Armenia removed from the elections, I do not rule out that its electorate may shift in favour of Kocharyan’s bloc, which, according to current polls, has not yet crossed the electoral threshold.

The votes currently concentrated around Karapetyan and Strong Armenia could enable him to reach the necessary level of support.

At present, it is difficult to predict the outcome. Civil Contract is currently in the lead, but there is still enough time before the elections. Various unforeseen events are possible, so the situation should be closely monitored,” Musabayov believes.