Yerevan bets on the EU, fears Moscow Analysis by Matanat Nasibova

Last week, Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alen Simonyan, speaking on Public Television, addressed Armenian–Russian relations, making rather unflattering remarks about Moscow. In particular, he stated that “from the Russian side, there is an attempt to carry out a political operation in Armenia aimed at changing the government.”

“If in Ukraine they try to promote their interests through military means, then in Armenia there is an attempt to seize power. They are now trying to use our democracy against us, saying: you have an open internet, and we will buy so much advertising on this internet with our roubles that everything will become ours. We will not allow Armenia to be turned into a ‘guberniya’, we will not be governed the way Belarus is governed,” Simonyan said.

To begin with, it is worth noting that such accusations have been voiced by representatives of the Armenian establishment far from for the first time. If one looks at the chronology of events, back in February 2024, in an interview with France 24, Prime Minister Pashinyan openly stated that a few months earlier, Russia had allegedly called on the Armenian population to overthrow the government, adding that propaganda from Moscow against him had not stopped.

In September of the same year, the Investigative Committee of Armenia announced that it had prevented an attempt to seize power. Later, the Armenian leader on several occasions referred to “hybrid threats,” claiming that Russian interests were intersecting with local opposition forces and church circles in an effort to overthrow the current government.

However, if previously accusations against Moscow were voiced from Yerevan mainly during periods of a sharp deterioration in Armenian–Russian relations, the “latest” and rather harsh messages from Simonyan towards Russia were made at a time of relative stabilisation on the Russian–Armenian track, and precisely on the eve of two events to be held in the Armenian capital — the EPC summit and the Armenia–EU meeting with the participation of European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Under these circumstances, the Speaker of the National Assembly’s statements hardly appear coincidental and are more likely elements of a carefully considered strategy.

It is reasonable to assume that, firstly, anti-Russian rhetoric helps reinforce the image of Armenia as a country under external pressure. In other words, the Armenian authorities are shaping the political background in a way that signals to Brussels their readiness for deeper integration.

Secondly, it appears that Yerevan is also expecting to receive not only political but also economic dividends in the form of investments.

On the other hand, it is also quite possible that the anti-Russian narrative is aimed at that segment of the electorate which supports European integration — a factor that is particularly important for the current authorities ahead of elections.

At the same time, the European Union is actively strengthening its position in the South Caucasus as a whole, and in Armenia in particular. A clear illustration of this is the establishment of a new EU civilian mission in the country — EUPM Armenia, which will focus on “countering foreign information manipulation, cyberattacks, and illicit financial flows.” In parallel, this expanded presence provides Brussels with additional leverage over Armenian politics, with the aim of accelerating the country’s “Europeanisation” and its gradual distancing from Russia.

In short, through such steps, the European Union is positioning itself as a reliable partner for Yerevan and offering the Armenian authorities an alternative to Russian security guarantees. Against this backdrop, the summits in Yerevan can be seen as another opportunity for Brussels to consolidate Armenia’s pivot towards the EU. In turn, Alen Simonyan’s statement on Russian interference strengthens a key argument about the importance of Europe in safeguarding Armenia’s interests across multiple dimensions.