Merz’s Iran rhetoric: foreign policy or domestic survival strategy? Review by Teymur Atayev

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has once again loudly voiced a striking slogan that, in one form or another, has been discussed by leading news agencies for the second day in a row. Since taking office as Chancellor, Merz has periodically commented on various pressing issues, including cautious criticism of US policy toward Europe. However, after his visit to Washington a few months ago, he noticeably toned down his rhetoric. And now — seemingly unexpectedly — he has decided to politically “sting,” if one may put it that way, US President Donald Trump.

According to Merz, Iran’s ruling circles are “humiliating the United States” by forcing American officials to fly to Pakistan and then return without achieving any positive outcome for their country. He criticised Trump’s approach to the Middle East, stressing that Washington entered a war with Iran “without any strategy.” As for Tehran, in Merz’s view, unlike the Americans, “the Iranians are obviously very skilled ⁠at negotiating, or rather, very skilful at not negotiating,” which leads to their ineffectiveness.

This anti-American shift, according to a number of analysts, is driven by the Chancellor’s desire to offset his own record-low popularity at home. In other words, Merz is attempting to balance internal problems through foreign policy activism — for now, mainly at the rhetorical level. In this context, experts refer to the latest INSA poll, which showed a rise in support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which, if elections were held “here and now,” would gain a record 28%.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by the Chancellor, trailed the AfD by 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), which is in a governing coalition with the CDU, reached only 14%.

Overall, these figures did not come as a surprise. As early as the beginning of April, according to an ARD DeutschlandTrend poll, only 15% of voters expressed satisfaction with Merz’s performance — 9 points lower than in March. At the same time, 84% of Germans were dissatisfied with the work of the coalition government. Merz’s personal approval rating stood at just 21%.

This trend is explained, among other things, by the fact that Merz has failed to deliver the promised modernisation of Germany or ensure economic growth through the previously announced €500 billion spending plan. Unemployment rose to 6.6%, marking the highest level in more than a decade.

In mid-April, according to a YouGov poll, the CDU’s rating fell to a multi-year low of 23%. This is the lowest figure recorded by the institute since December 2021, and six points lower than the party’s result in the 2025 general election. At the same time, just under 80% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of the CDU–SPD coalition government — 24 percentage points more than in the summer of 2025.

Meanwhile, the AfD, according to the same polls, is “gaining” around 27%. The party’s co-chair, Alice Weidel, stating that four out of five German citizens are dissatisfied with Merz, has once again brought forward the call for a “political turnaround must take place now.”

Thus, the decline in Merz’s popularity and that of his party, as well as the overall level of support for the government, did not begin yesterday. However, according to some observers, it is at this stage that the German Chancellor is attempting to revive his rating and bring it back to “acceptable” levels. At the same time, supporters of this view see the developments as a reaction to the AfD's growing popularity, which is gradually attracting support even from social groups that previously leaned toward the SPD.

In late March, Deutsche Welle raised the question with some bewilderment as to whether the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be regarded as a new “neoliberal workers’ party”. The trigger for this discussion was the growing number of German workers voting for this political force, which became evident following the elections in Rhineland-Palatinate, where the AfD secured almost 21% of the vote — more than double its result from five years earlier. Notably, this outcome was also higher than in the previous elections in Baden-Württemberg.

An important nuance is that in Rhineland-Palatinate, nearly 40% of AfD voters came from the working class and low-income groups. Among the reasons highlighted by analysts are fears of job losses and expectations of social decline. According to a survey by the Infratest dimap sociological institute, more than 70% of respondents agreed with the statement that the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) “is no longer on the side of workers.”

One of the AfD’s election slogans concerns housing rental affordability, while the party identifies rising migration as a serious threat to Germany’s standard of living. Against this backdrop, the AfD has begun building links with trade unions, supporting the “Zentrum” association, which positions itself as an “alternative” workers’ movement and has gained representation on works councils at individual Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen plants.

There has so far been no official reaction from Washington to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s anti-American demarche. However, the fact remains: the German leader has made a noticeable political shift within the Euro-Atlantic space. The consequences of this move are likely to become visible in the coming days.

At the same time, the AfD continues to gain momentum. In particular, there are reports of rising support for the party in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where regional elections are scheduled for September. If this trend is confirmed, it could mark the first case since the end of the Second World War in which a right-wing party comes to power in this region.

As some experts note, Merz now faces two “exams” at once: domestically — whether he can reverse the negative trend in public sentiment — and externally — where he will have to build relations, first and foremost, with Donald Trump. How prepared he is for these challenges will become clear in the near future.