Unionism as an EU shortcut Chișinău’s strategy and its risks

A key priority of the official authorities in Chișinău remains the accession of Moldova to the European Union by any possible means, and this issue periodically emerges at the highest level of the political agenda.

This was once again confirmed by Moldovan President Maia Sandu in her recent interview with Le Monde. In particular, she stated that the unification of the country with Romania could be considered one of the ways to accelerate the process of joining the EU, stressing that for Moldova, integration into this structure is not merely an aspiration, but a strategy for the survival of the state as a democratic country.

Moldova submitted its application to join the European Union on March 3, 2022, became a candidate country in June 2022, and official accession negotiations began later, on June 25, 2024.

To begin with, it should be noted that statements regarding unionism based on shared history, culture, and language have not been made by Maia Sandu for the first time. In particular, in January of this year, in an interview with British journalists Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell, she stated that “If we have a referendum, I would vote for the unification with Romania,” explaining such an intention by the geopolitical situation surrounding Moldova and the world at large. Thus, according to the position of the Moldovan government, unification with Romania today is seen as the only real way for Moldova to strengthen its security and join the European Union.

In this context, a question arises as to how viable these ideas are, which we will attempt to examine. If Moldova’s desire to join the EU is considered in conjunction with its intention to counter Russian pressure, then the chances of it becoming part of the European family are likely to exist. Moreover, today they are higher than ever, which is due to the prolonged crisis between Moscow and Brussels over the war in Ukraine.

However, as with any dilemma, there is also a downside—factors that could reduce the likelihood of Moldova joining the European Union in the next two to three years. First and foremost, the process of European integration is lengthy and complex, requiring the country to align its economic indicators and legislation with EU standards.

Secondly, the accession of any state to the EU requires the absolute support and consent of all member states. Although at present no EU country is officially blocking Chișinău’s accession, some remain sceptical due to Moldova’s internal problems, the most prominent of which is the unresolved Transnistrian conflict. In addition, Moldova’s weak economy, which clearly requires extensive reforms, also offers little optimism, as it would inevitably become a burden for Brussels.

Given these challenges, the Moldovan authorities are quite deliberately expressing readiness for unification with Romania as a way to enter the united Europe, since Romania is already a member of both NATO and the European Union.

However, there are also certain pitfalls here, one of which is the position of the Romanian authorities regarding unionism, which at present can be described as rather cautious: despite significant support provided to Chișinău, Romanian President Nicușor Dan stated that Romania and Moldova “have not yet reached” the stage of unification.

First of all, in Bucharest, one of the counterarguments to unification is that this initiative does not enjoy the support of the majority of Moldovan citizens (unionism is supported by around 30–40% of the population, while it is firmly opposed by Transnistria, Gagauzia, and the northern part of the country, especially Bălți and surrounding areas), which represents a difficult obstacle to any attempt to accelerate the process.

As can be seen, it becomes increasingly clear that Romania is not eager to assume responsibility for the “frozen” Transnistrian conflict and the direct proximity of Russian military presence, nor to invest enormous resources into restructuring Moldova’s economy, modernising its infrastructure, and addressing its social challenges.

In addition, there is another important factor that Romanian authorities take seriously into account: a merger with Moldova could trigger a negative reaction from national minorities, primarily Hungarians, who are sceptical about the idea of unionism, fearing a reduction of their political influence and a disruption of the ethnic balance.

At the same time, Romanians themselves are rather favourable towards the prospect of unification with the Moldovan state: according to a poll conducted by the CURS centre in January of this year, 56% of respondents would vote for unionism if the issue were put to a referendum, 37% would not support such an initiative, and 7% were undecided.

Thus, when comparing all these factors, one ultimately arrives at an assessment that is not particularly optimistic regarding the likelihood of Moldova uniting with Romania and becoming an EU member in the near future: the balance of probabilities suggests that this process will take not one or two years, but rather a decade.