Russian intelligence claims Ukraine planning strikes from Latvia

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said on Tuesday, May 19, that Ukraine is preparing to launch strikes against Russian territory from Latvia, alleging an escalation in tactics involving Baltic states.

In a statement, the SVR claimed that Ukrainian authorities are seeking to demonstrate to their European backers that the country retains military capability and can continue to inflict damage on Russia’s economy.

“The regime of V. Zelenskyy is determined by all means to demonstrate to its ideological and financial patrons in Europe the preservation of the combat potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their ability to inflict damage on the Russian economy. Based on this, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is preparing to launch a series of new terrorist strikes on rear regions of the Russian Federation,” the SVR said.

According to the Russian agency, Ukrainian forces are allegedly preparing a new wave of attacks on Russia’s rear regions, expanding beyond previously used aerial routes through Baltic airspace.

“According to the information received, Kyiv does not intend to limit itself to the use of air corridors provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the Baltic countries. Drones are also planned to be launched from the territory of these states. The calculation is that such tactics will significantly reduce flight time to targets and increase the effectiveness of terrorist attacks,” the statement said.

The SVR further alleged that Latvia has agreed to support the operation despite concerns about potential retaliation.

“Despite concerns from the Latvian side about becoming a target of a retaliatory strike from Moscow, Kyiv authorities persuaded Riga to agree to the operation. The Ukrainians emphasised that it would be impossible to determine the exact launch location of the UAVs. (...) Servicemen of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces have already been sent to Latvia. They are stationed at Latvian military bases ‘Adazi’, ‘Selia’, ‘Lielvarde’, ‘Daugavpils’ and ‘Jekabpils’,” it added.

The agency warned that such actions could have consequences and stressed that modern intelligence systems are capable of identifying launch points.

“One can only sympathise with the naivety of Latvian leaders. Modern intelligence tools make it possible to reliably determine the coordinates of UAV launch points. Reliable data can also be obtained by studying drone debris, as was the case with Ukraine’s attempt to attack the residence of the Russian president in December last year. It is also worth recalling that the coordinates of decision-making centres on Latvian territory are well known, and the country’s NATO membership will not protect accomplices of terrorists from just retribution,” the SVR said.

By Tamilla Hasanova