Reform UK and the collapse of the old system Review by Artem Kirpichenok

Populists, nationalists, independents, and Greens — this is the list of winners in the municipal elections held in the United Kingdom on May 7. And, as we can see, representatives of the country’s two main parties — the Conservatives and Labour — are absent from this list, prompting observers to speak of the end of the two-party system that has, since time immemorial, served as the foundation of political life in the kingdom.

Looking at the broader picture, it becomes clear that the current vote was viewed by the British public as a referendum on Starmer’s cabinet. Turnout at many polling stations increased severalfold compared to previous decades. There were also reports of queues at numerous polling stations.

The reasons behind Labour’s defeat were not limited to local issues, but were also shaped by the international situation. As British elections expert Sir John Curtice notes, on average, the number of votes cast for Labour fell by 16 points compared to 2022, and by an even greater margin — 19 points — compared to 2024. Particularly noteworthy, however, is the fact that the decline was especially sharp in areas where the party had previously been strongest, and in districts where many people identify themselves as Muslims.

Labour also lost mayoral posts to the Greens in two London boroughs — Hackney and Lewisham — as well as several district councils in the capital. In all likelihood, this was linked to the position of Keir Starmer’s cabinet regarding the war in the Middle East. Public outrage was also fuelled by reports concerning the alleged involvement of members of the British elite in the notorious Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

Even Labour Party officials themselves were forced to admit that voters had shown them a “red card.” As one ally of the current prime minister stated — before urging dissatisfied Labour MPs not to inflame tensions and instead rally around the present leadership — “the country has struck us in the face.”

Thus, the future of Keir Starmer — who is closely associated with the political establishment and, for that very reason, enjoys little affection among the “broad masses” — at the residence on 10 Downing Street is now increasingly uncertain. Although the Labour leader himself has declared his intention to continue the struggle, he believes that his resignation as prime minister would plunge the country into chaos.

Critics, meanwhile, argue that the United Kingdom has been in crisis for quite some time already, and that the prime minister’s determination to remain in office resembles the desire of a captain of a sinking ship to go down together with his vessel. The outcome of this confrontation remains unpredictable, but it is evident that British politics is entering a period of turbulence that will not end even if someone else eventually replaces Starmer in the prime minister’s chair.

Logically, the main beneficiaries of Labour’s collapse should have been their traditional rivals — the Conservatives — but this did not happen. The principal winner instead was the right-wing populist party Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, which was created several years ago as a coalition in support of Brexit. This political force, which until recently had been regarded as marginal, now consistently ranks first in opinion polls and could become the country’s third most influential party.

Such an alignment corresponds with forecasts made by British scholars, who predicted that large numbers of Labour and Conservative politicians would be replaced by new figures from radical parties, forced to quickly adapt to their new roles under difficult conditions. This development also aligns with findings by the Institute for Government, according to which local authorities in England have been in crisis for many years, with their activities essentially reduced to mere survival amid acute budget deficits.

Experts believe that, for these “political newcomers,” gaining control over local authorities offers an opportunity to accumulate experience and demonstrate the administrative potential of their representatives ahead of the next general election. However, any enthusiasm surrounding systemic reform must be balanced by the need to respond swiftly to voters’ demands and to operate effectively within the existing institutional framework.

Thus, from now on, municipalities will no longer be dominated exclusively by the two traditional parties, and mayors will have to grow accustomed to working alongside representatives of a wide range of political forces. In effect, we are witnessing a rehearsal for the formation of fragmented governing coalitions that could emerge at the national level following the next general parliamentary elections.

Serious challenges may also arise in the regions of the United Kingdom. In Wales, the government will for the first time be formed by local nationalists; the Scottish National Party (SNP) continues to control the parliament of Scotland, where it holds 58 seats; and this is compounded by the triumph of Reform UK in England. Three nationalist parties at the head of regional governments represent an alarming signal for the United Kingdom, indicating a profound transformation of the country’s political landscape.

Overall, the local elections have once again demonstrated that the split in British politics is far from a temporary phenomenon — as both the Conservative and Labour parties had long hoped — but rather a structural trend that is unlikely to disappear. As nationalist parties and the Greens continue to gain popularity, the likelihood increases that many constituencies in the next general election will become highly unpredictable, with three, four, or even five parties competing in the same races.

In addition, it is possible that as many as five parties could each secure between 15 and 25 per cent of the vote. This could bring the issue of electoral reform in the United Kingdom back onto the political agenda — a topic that has not been seriously raised in British politics for a long time.