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Why Russia is reinforcing its base in Gyumri Experts analyse Moscow’s military buildup in Armenia

28 July 2025 12:57

Russia is significantly reinforcing its 102nd military base in Armenia, according to Armenian media. It is noted that in recent weeks, a large amount of military equipment and ammunition has been delivered to the base in Gyumri. Several cargo planes with military supplies land there daily.

The official purpose of these deliveries has not been disclosed, but various versions have been proposed. According to one of them, Moscow is preparing for possible changes in the region, despite the outwardly calm rhetoric about a potential withdrawal of its base from Armenia. It is also claimed that the Armenian authorities are aware of what is happening but do not publicly comment on the situation.

What might be behind this? For what purpose is Russia transferring weapons to Armenia? Is it related to suspicions that Moscow is preparing to change the government in Armenia even before the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year? Or is it about posing an additional threat to the states neighbouring Armenia?

Renowned foreign experts shared their opinions on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Polish political scientist, Caucasus expert, and Doctor of Sciences at the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the University of Warsaw, Konrad Zasztowt, stated that, in his view, the strengthening of the base in Gyumri is Russia’s attempt to increase political pressure on the countries of the region.

“Moscow has disagreements both with Yerevan and with Baku. In the case of Armenia, Russia is concerned about the Armenian authorities’ efforts to weaken political ties with the Kremlin and strengthen relations with the European Union and NATO countries. As for Azerbaijan, the country is economically independent from Russia and politically close to Türkiye — a NATO member.

Armenia is also trying to restore relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye. As a result, Russia’s influence in the region is effectively limited to its base in Gyumri,” the Caucasus expert explained.

He views the current military buildup at the base as an attempt to intimidate Yerevan and Baku, reminding the Caucasus states of the need to take Moscow’s interests into account.

“However, this attempt is unlikely to be effective. It will not significantly affect the foreign policy of either Armenia or Azerbaijan. Russia, embroiled in the war in Ukraine, is unlikely to be capable of conducting military operations in the Caucasus. This would only become more likely if the fighting in Ukraine ceases — then Moscow may initiate new conflicts in other parts of the post-Soviet space,” Zasztowt noted.

Ihor Semyvolos, Executive Director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (Kyiv), in turn, emphasised that the reports of deliveries of equipment and ammunition to the Russian base in Gyumri indeed raise many questions and have given rise to several hypotheses.

“The first hypothesis: Russia is likely aiming to strengthen its 102nd military base in Gyumri to maintain its strategic influence in the South Caucasus. This region remains geopolitically important as it lies at the intersection of the interests of Russia, Türkiye, Iran, and Western countries. The base’s reinforcement may be a reaction to Russia’s weakening position in Armenia. Moscow could be increasing its military presence to remind the region of its influence and to prevent Armenia’s further drift toward the West.

The second hypothesis: the base’s strengthening may be a response to tense relations with Azerbaijan. It could also be a signal to Türkiye, which actively supports Azerbaijan and is expanding its influence in the region.

The third hypothesis: the deliveries might be connected to preparations for possible changes in the region — including potential conflicts or instability in Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Georgia. Experts believe Moscow is ‘preparing for possible changes in the region.’

The fourth hypothesis: the deliveries of military equipment may be part of a strategy to pressure Nikol Pashinyan’s government, which in recent years has shown a clear distancing from Moscow. Pashinyan has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Russia’s actions, including failures to fulfil arms supply commitments and a lack of support within the framework of the CSTO,” the expert recalled.

He also suggested the possibility that Russia might be supporting opposition forces in Armenia with the aim of undermining Pashinyan’s position ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections.

“For example, Ukrainian intelligence (the Main Directorate of Intelligence) has claimed that Russia is interfering in Armenia’s internal affairs, including attempts to organise a coup. The equipment deliveries could be part of preparations to support pro-Russian forces in the event of a political crisis, although there is no direct evidence of this yet.

It is also possible that the deliveries are part of a scheduled arms upgrade or equipment rotation at the base, which has been operational since 1995 and whose service life has been extended until 2044.

Overall, the deliveries of military equipment to Gyumri are most likely connected to Russia’s efforts to strengthen its position amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty in the South Caucasus. This may be a response to Pashinyan’s pro-Western course, tensions in relations with Azerbaijan, or preparations for unpredictable scenarios.

As for the hypothesis about a change of power, it remains unproven and unlikely in the short term, while any potential threat to neighbouring states is limited to the strategic role of the base as a defensive stronghold.

Armenian authorities are likely avoiding public comments in order not to escalate tensions with Moscow, seeking to maintain a fragile balance,” Semyvolos concluded.

Caliber.Az
Views: 484

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