Kremlin losing the South Caucasus and threatening Azerbaijan with new “special military operation” Expert insights

Russian state propaganda has sharply intensified its bellicose rhetoric toward Azerbaijan amid reports of a possible lifting of Baku’s arms supply moratorium to Ukraine.

A new “special military operation” could begin in the South Caucasus, propagandist Vladimir Solovyov stated on the program “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov” on the Russia-1 channel. According to him, NATO bases could appear in the Caspian Sea region, which he called “a very big problem.” With this, he was unmistakably alluding to Azerbaijan, which is close to Türkiye, a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.

“And this is so dangerous that, from a geopolitical perspective, the consequences could be such that this would not be the last special military operation of our generation,” Solovyov said.

Following the propagandists’ rhetoric, the State Duma also began discussing a toughening of policy toward Azerbaijan after reports that Baku is considering lifting the moratorium on arms supplies to Ukraine if Russia continues its aggressive stance against Azerbaijan’s interests.

The parliamentarians' stance was voiced by Andrey Gurulyov, a member of the Duma Committee on Regional Policy, who was previously transferred there from the Defence Committee following a series of high-profile statements—including remarks about a nuclear strike on the United States. In his video address, responding to news of Baku’s decision to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine, he stated that the authorities could impose an embargo on Azerbaijani goods supplied to Russia.

“It’s really not very smart to spoil relations with such a large neighbor as Russia. If Azerbaijani goods disappear from Russian store shelves, nothing will change for us—but it will change a lot for them,” Gurulyov said.

He also hinted at the possibility of pressure on the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia, saying he was ready to “nip the local guys” doing business on Russian soil.

“There are other ways. A special military operation is a flexible concept. Flexible along the entire Russian border,” the deputy concluded, echoing Solovyov.

It is clear that these statements reflect nervousness in the Kremlin. The question is how Moscow might react to losing its monopoly over regional processes. Tensions with Azerbaijan continue to be escalated—how this will all end remains uncertain.

Prominent experts shared their views on the developments with Caliber.Az.

Mikhail Gonchar, President of the Ukrainian Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Black Sea Security, noted that if the “first booze-speaker” Gurulyov has already entered the game, then on the bench there are still Zakharova and an even “heavier calibre”—Medvedev.

“So everything is still ahead. I’m not even talking about the regular and freelance Kremlin propagandists. The ‘SVO’ [special military operation – ed.] against Azerbaijan has already begun, and not only in hybrid form. Strikes on the Orlivka compressor station of the Trans-Balkan pipeline, through which a small trial batch of Azerbaijani gas was being pumped, as well as on the SOCAR fuel depot in the Odesa region, are indicators of the Kremlin’s readiness to ‘mess with Baku’ not just through propaganda and IPSO [information-psychological special operation – ed.].”

“Moscow is clearly not currently capable of opening an Azerbaijani front by sending several special forces brigades to Baku via Derbent: most of them have been decimated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the steppes of Ukraine over the past 3.5 years. However, in reality, Russia could carry out sabotage disguised as emergencies on oil and gas platforms and subsea pipelines on the Caspian shelf, as well as on the BTD and BTE pipelines within Georgian territory,” the expert said.

According to him, the Kremlin has been plotting to retaliate against Baku for its excessive independence for about six months. It is no coincidence that Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov inspected the Caspian Flotilla in March of this year, paying particular attention to the forces and assets of the naval special forces, including the 336th Separate Marine Battalion with its diver-sabotage unit and the 137th Separate Special Purpose PDSS Detachment.

Regular amphibious landing exercises targeting the coasts of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which began as part of the "Caucasus-2020" drills, should also not be forgotten.

Scenarios being practised include the capture of ports, maritime facilities, and the destruction of underwater infrastructure.

“Russia has the forces and means to carry out a serious sabotage operation disguised as a ‘technological accident’ on Azerbaijan’s extensive oil infrastructure on the Caspian shelf. Strategically, it is important for Moscow to eliminate competitors in the oil market, and Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are exactly such competitors. Russia needs to reverse the trend of falling oil prices by removing at least some of the competing flows from the market.

Therefore, there is no need to fear Moscow, but vigilance should be increased, and additional measures to defend and protect critical energy infrastructure should be considered. Propaganda barrages, however, do not require special attention,” Gonchar believes.

Conflict analyst and Doctor of International Relations, Professor at the Georgian Technical University, Amiran Khetsuriani, reminded that the nature of Russia’s foreign policy and its approach to neighbouring countries have long been well known.

“It is an abnormal state: it has neither an internal political culture nor the rule of law. Accordingly, we, especially post-Soviet countries, should never expect constructive or mutually respectful relations from it. Such is the nature and code of conduct of a gangster regime, driven by imperial ambitions and morally depleted (fortunately, now also physically weakened—thanks to the Ukrainian army).”

“The threats from Kremlin propagandists of a new ‘SVO’ in the South Caucasus, and against Azerbaijan in particular, are absurd and not serious. The gang of thugs known as the Russian army lacks both the knowledge and resources to confront a modern and battle-hardened force like the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. Especially since any aggression against Azerbaijan is legally considered aggression against Türkiye. Therefore, the clowns should choose their words more carefully,” the professor noted.

 At the same time, he noted that Russian authorities could indeed create problems for peaceful and honest Azerbaijani citizens residing in Russia.

“We have repeatedly witnessed the inhumane and barbaric methods their security forces have used against Azerbaijanis. This reflects their weakness, which they have shown toward other nationalities as well.

Georgia has a large Azerbaijani community, and as a citizen of Georgia, I can say with confidence that it would be hard to find more loyal and honest citizens. Therefore, no one believes the Kremlin’s dirty narratives.

Moscow understands that it is losing the South Caucasus, and this process can no longer be stopped. This has effectively ended nearly 250 years of dominance over our lands,” said Khetsuriani.