Under whose tune is Armenia’s ex-minister singing? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

“Threats and challenges facing Armenia have doubled in recent years, and this is no longer just a security crisis — we are living in an era of historic changes both in the region and around the world,” said former Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Aivazian on February 7 in Yerevan, during a discussion organised by the movement Together.

“The rules of the game in international politics have changed, and the cost of mistakes has increased. Power has once again become a key factor in international relations,” he noted, adding that under these circumstances, Armenia is facing existential threats and serious challenges.

According to him, Armenia must restore its ability to make sovereign decisions.

“We must break free from the false logic of the war-or-peace dilemma imposed on us. Armenia faces a different choice: between continuing to deepen its strategic vulnerability or developing a policy of strategic deterrence. First, it is necessary to understand the real objectives of Armenia’s adversaries, namely Azerbaijan and Türkiye. It is obvious that they are not seeking peaceful coexistence with Armenia; their strategic goals remain unchanged. These goals are to make Armenia unviable, strip it of the ability to make independent decisions, deepen its dependence on the Turkic world, and, under favourable conditions for them, eventually absorb it within the framework of the ‘Great Turan’ project.

The backbone of this strategy is the so-called Zangezur Corridor, aimed at undermining Armenia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as shifting the balance of power in the region in favour of Baku and Ankara,” emphasised Aivazian.

According to him, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project — with the right approach and in the event of strengthening Armenia’s capabilities — could theoretically neutralise these threats. However, in the current circumstances, it offers no guarantees for Armenia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, which, in Aivazian’s view, carries the risk of legitimising the objectives of its adversaries.

He also emphasised the importance of building real and effective coalitions with forces interested in restoring the regional balance of power.

Aivazian clarified that this involves rebooting relations with Russia and deepening ties with Iran, to create a strategic Armenia–Russia–Iran triangle.

What exactly is one of the last openly anti-Azerbaijani Armenian foreign ministers who served under Pashinyan trying to achieve, and what is he counting on? Does he really believe that Yerevan still has a chance to “reset relations with Russia and deepen ties with Iran” to form a strategic Armenia–Russia–Iran triangle?

Well-known experts from neighbouring countries shared their assessments on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Armenian journalist and blogger Roman Baghdasaryan began by noting that Ara Aivazian is indeed a former minister who was appointed to the post out of necessity — at a time when, according to him, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan simply had no alternative candidate.

“That was a forced measure. He is a rotten, vile person by nature. Within the Armenian Foreign Ministry itself, the majority of staff do not respect him. Ninety per cent of the ministry’s employees consider him deceitful and cunning. He is a corrupt man. It is no surprise that he defends Russia’s interests. He doesn’t care about Armenia’s interests, because neither his son nor his relatives have ever fought for Armenia or defended our borders — not even for an hour,” the blogger said.

According to Baghdasaryan, people like Aivazian find it extremely easy to make bold, loud statements.

“I assure you, there is not a trace of patriotism in this man. While working at the ministry, he did everything he could to undermine the Armenian prime minister. It is well known with whom he did this and which ministry employees were involved — unfortunately, some of them are still part of the system. His statements mean nothing. It is just the barking of an unpopular and irrelevant politician. He is a person with zero political weight, long discarded into the dustbin of history,” Baghdasaryan concluded.

Doctor of Military and Political Sciences, Professor Vakhtang Maisaia (Georgia), noted that he had reviewed the statements of the former Armenian foreign minister with interest.

“It gives me the impression that Russia has already begun operating within the framework of so-called Sharp Power. This refers to a strategy involving special psychological operations, propaganda, disinformation, as well as waging combat through intermediaries (proxy war).

The statements of the former Armenian foreign minister are most likely already being used by Russia as an element of this ‘sharp power’ ahead of important parliamentary elections, which are set to determine the country’s trajectory for the next five years.

This indicates that Russia is beginning its ‘battle for Armenia.’ Notably, actions within the framework of Sharp Power are already starting in February,” the professor said.

In his view, the Kremlin will attempt to directly influence the outcome of the parliamentary elections and establish the very trilateral geopolitical axis — Russia–Armenia–Iran — that Aivazian speaks of.

“This alliance will be aimed at countering the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor, as well as at preventing closer ties between the U.S., Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Potentially, such a policy could lead to Azerbaijan’s isolation from the international community and the effective subordination of Georgia and Armenia.

I believe that by May, Russia will move to concrete actions, and we must be prepared for this,” Maisaia concluded.