"Azerbaijani gas supplies to Syria expand Baku's influence" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

A ceremony marking the launch of Azerbaijani gas exports to Syria was recently held in Kilis, Türkiye. The event was attended by Azerbaijan’s Minister of Economy and Chairman of SOCAR’s Supervisory Board, Mikayil Jabbarov, Türkiye’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar, Syria’s Minister of Energy Mohammed al-Bashir, and the Director of the Qatar Fund for Development, Hamad Hassan Al-Sulaiti.

According to the agreement signed between Azerbaijan’s SOCAR and the Syrian government, the first stage envisions the export of 1.2 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Syria annually.

In his speech, Mikayil Jabbarov stated that the supply of Azerbaijani gas to Syria via Türkiye lays the foundation for an energy bridge between the South Caucasus and the Middle East. He added that oil and gas cooperation between Baku and Damascus would pave the way for new investment and infrastructure projects.

Türkiye’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, noted that the gas deliveries would soon bring Syrian power plants back into operation:
"Thanks to this natural gas, around 1,200 megawatts of installed capacity will be reactivated. This project will make a significant contribution to normalising life in Syria, improve people's quality of life, and accelerate the process of return to the country."

How is the significance of Azerbaijani gas supplies to Syria viewed abroad? Foreign experts and political analysts answer this question for Caliber.Az.

The Turkish-Kazakh politician and political analyst, founder of the “Union of the Great Turan” foundation, Serikzhan Mambetalin, sees an important geopolitical dimension in this development. In his view, Azerbaijani gas has the potential to enhance the energy capabilities of Syria, a country with limited domestic energy resources, thereby reducing its dependence on major suppliers—such as Russia.

“A new gas source will help stimulate the development of the industrial sector and infrastructure projects in the country, contribute to economic recovery, and attract investors. For Azerbaijan, gas supplies to the Middle East region—specifically to Syria—will help expand its sphere of influence by deepening economic and political ties with Türkiye, its key ally and partner in the region.

Notably, Azerbaijan has recently launched trial gas deliveries to Ukraine via Bulgaria and Romania, which also points to Baku’s growing energy influence,” Mambetalin stated.

Kyrgyz political analyst and PhD in Political Science Umar Mutaliev believes that Azerbaijani gas supplies to Syria are significantly reshaping the political and economic map of the region and contributing to the formation of a new geography of relations in the Middle East.

“Azerbaijan is confidently taking the lead in developing cooperation with a number of regional countries, becoming a moderator of many political and economic processes—not dividing, but rather promoting integration among a wide array of regional states. For instance, Azerbaijan’s partnerships with both Israel and Türkiye clearly ensure the success, security, and long-term prospects of this energy project. Despite the current complexities in Türkiye–Syria and Israel–Syria relations, Baku serves as a kind of guarantor that these countries will eventually be able to engage in meaningful dialogue and cooperation. In fact, negotiations between Syrian and Israeli representatives are already taking place—not just anywhere, but in Baku.

Moreover, Azerbaijan is a key supplier of gas to European countries, which further demonstrates its weight and authority in the region, bringing East and West closer together through ties with Baku. In this context, we see that former dominant players and process coordinators in the Middle East, such as Russia, are increasingly sidelined. Moscow once wielded significant influence through its vast oil and gas reserves, shaping economic and political dynamics to suit its own interests. However, recent trends—particularly severe sanctions—have nearly nullified Russia’s energy presence in the region. This opens space for countries like Azerbaijan to act more freely, build new partnerships, and strengthen strategic brotherhood and unity within the Islamic world. All these trends are for the better,” Mutaliev concluded.