Demographic crisis in Japan: Birth rate set to hit 126-year anti-record

Japan's demographic emergency has intensified as demographers forecast that births in 2025 will fall below 670,000, marking the lowest annual figure since records began in 1899 and the 10th consecutive year of record-low births, per The Financial Times.

Preliminary data from the first 10 months of the year, analysed by experts, indicate a sharp decline from 686,000 Japanese births in 2024 – already a historic low. This trajectory undershoots even the government's most pessimistic "low variant" projections from 2023, which anticipated around 681,000 births in 2025 and no drop below 670,000 until 2041. The medium-variant forecast had predicted 749,000.

The plummeting birth rate, driven by fewer marriages (now under 500,000 annually, half the 1972 peak) and economic pressures on young couples, has accelerated Japan's population shrinkage. With deaths rising, the native population declined by over 900,000 in 2024 alone.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has called population decline "Japan's biggest problem," chaired the inaugural meeting of the new Population Strategy Headquarters in November. The government has allocated billions in recent years for child-rearing support, but experts warn these measures have failed to reverse the trend, potentially necessitating higher taxes and reduced benefits.

Public resistance to increased immigration remains strong, complicating solutions amid labor shortages. As 2026 approaches – a "fire horse" year in the zodiac cycle, historically linked to a 25% birth drop in 1966 due to superstitions about girls born then – demographers doubt a repeat, noting modern Japanese youth largely dismiss such beliefs.

Economists urge revised projections to reflect the faster-than-expected decline, highlighting risks to fiscal planning and social security. "Years of efforts to raise the birth rate have proven futile," one analyst noted, underscoring the urgency for bold new policies.

By Khagan Isayev