How Pakistan's military capabilities dwarf Taliban's neglected forces

Cross-border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated overnight, with both sides reporting significant casualties and Pakistan’s defence minister declaring the country was in an “open war” with its neighbour. Although the renewed fighting has pushed the confrontation back into global headlines, the latest violence merely marks the culmination of months of strain following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 — itself preceded by decades of fluctuating relations.

In October 2025, the two countries agreed to an immediate ceasefire during negotiations mediated by Qatar and Türkiye after a week of intense and deadly border clashes.

Their shared frontier, known as the Durand Line, stretches 2,611 kilometers. Kabul does not formally recognize the boundary, arguing that it was a colonial-era imposition that unjustly split ethnic Pashtun communities between the two states.

Islamabad has repeatedly urged the Afghan Taliban to curb militant groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which it accuses Afghanistan of sheltering. The TTP, formed in Pakistan in 2007, is distinct from Afghanistan’s Taliban but maintains strong ideological, linguistic, and social links.

In recent years, attacks in Pakistan by the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), active in the resource-rich Balochistan province, have surged. The provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, both bordering Afghanistan, have been hardest hit.

“The Afghan Taliban [...] appear unwilling to seriously crack down on the TTP, partly due to prior affinities between the two groups but also out of fear of TTP militants defecting to its main rival, the Islamic State Khorasan Province,” Pearl Pandya, senior analyst at the US-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), told Al Jazeera.

Pandya added that a major escalation is “inevitable” if the Taliban authorities fail to act decisively against the TTP.

Asymmetric powers 

Drawing on data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Reuters has compared the military strength of the two neighbours as hostilities intensify.

Pakistan’s armed forces benefit from strong recruitment and retention, supported by equipment supplied by its principal defence partner, China. Islamabad continues to develop its nuclear program and is modernizing both its navy and air force.

By contrast, the Afghan Taliban’s military capability appears to be weakening. Its ability to operate foreign-made equipment captured during its 2021 return to power has declined, and the lack of international recognition for the Taliban administration has hampered modernization efforts.

Manpower

In terms of manpower, Pakistan holds a decisive advantage. Its armed forces comprise about 660,000 active personnel — roughly 560,000 in the army, 70,000 in the air force, and 30,000 in the navy. The Afghan Taliban’s forces number around 172,000 active personnel, though the group has announced plans to expand to 200,000.

Infantry

Pakistan fields more than 6,000 armoured fighting vehicles and over 4,600 artillery pieces. Afghan forces also possess armoured vehicles, including Soviet-era main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and autonomous underwater vehicles, but precise figures remain unclear. The exact number of artillery systems — of at least three different types — is likewise unknown.

Air forces

The disparity is most pronounced in air power. Pakistan operates 465 combat aircraft and more than 260 helicopters, including multi-role, attack, and transport platforms. Afghanistan, however, lacks fighter jets and does not maintain a functioning air force. It is known to have at least six aircraft — some dating back to the Soviet period — and 23 helicopters, though their operational status is uncertain.

Pakistan has also established an integrated air defence network featuring Chinese-supplied surface-to-air missiles, rapid-deployment airfields, radar systems, and intelligence platforms. These capabilities, potentially reinforced by real-time data sharing with China, enhance its rapid response capacity.

The downing of several Indian Air Force Rafale jets in May 2025 during renewed hostilities linked to the Kashmir conflict — including at least one reportedly struck from 182 kilometers away using a Chinese PL-15E air-to-air missile — highlights these capabilities.

Nuclear might

The longstanding rivalry between India and Pakistan has resulted in three wars and numerous confrontations since their 1947 partition, largely centered on Kashmir. Both are nuclear-armed states, with Pakistan acquiring its arsenal in 1998, although nuclear weapons have never been used in combat.

Several countries, including Iran, China, and Russia, have urged restraint and offered to mediate. The coming days will determine whether Islamabad and Kabul choose de-escalation or continue their exchanges of fire.

By Nazrin Sadigova