"Trump decided to prioritise relations with Azerbaijan" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The working visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the United States was marked by a number of successful achievements. In particular, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and US President Donald Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Government of the United States of America on the establishment of a Strategic Working Group to prepare a Charter on Strategic Partnership between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the United States of America.

In addition, Donald Trump lifted Section 907 of the “Freedom Support Act.” President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, US President Donald Trump, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also signed a Joint Declaration regarding the meeting between the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia in Washington.

So, how can these steps by Washington towards Azerbaijan be assessed? It appears that the countries are set for a significant deepening of relations for the better. What makes Azerbaijan valuable to the United States, and to the current administration?

Renowned foreign experts shared their views on this with Caliber.Az.

Irish political scientist and historian Patrick Walsh is convinced that Donald Trump’s re-election was the final piece of the puzzle needed to begin the path toward resolution.

“Biden’s presidency was extremely one-sided and hindered the achievement of a peace agreement. The US had been absent from the region for years, and Russia was the one benefiting from that. Matthew Bryza recently stated that he sees Trump’s actions primarily as a personal initiative rather than an official US policy. I agree with him. But Trump’s initiative will have commercial consequences for the region and could stimulate an increase in US investments in the future. Trump, of course, is interested in oil. Previous US administrations opposed fossil fuels, and that is another reason for the shift in policy,” Walsh noted.

American political analyst Andrew Korybko believes that Trump decided to abandon the Biden administration’s policy of pressuring Azerbaijan after it failed to extract any concessions from Baku.

“Instead of favouring Armenia and trying to turn it into a regional stronghold of American influence, he chose to prioritise relations with Azerbaijan, which is much wealthier. He is a businessman, so he thinks in terms of deals. This explains the economically motivated diplomatic breakthrough of his administration in the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict through the regional ‘Trump corridor.’

Accordingly, Trump views the new strategic partnership between the US and Azerbaijan as extremely beneficial. Azerbaijan can purchase expensive advanced military equipment from the US and coordinate regional energy policy with them. Nevertheless, no matter how mutually advantageous this is for both parties, Russia will view it with suspicion. The recent rupture in Azerbaijani-Russian relations allows the Kremlin to interpret these events as part of an American plan to encircle Russia.

Therefore, Russian political commentators are expected to warn about the alleged threats that closer Azerbaijani-American ties pose to their country’s interests, but Russian officials will likely remain calm, still hoping to repair the recent downturn in bilateral relations. However, each side demands concessions from the other on sensitive issues, so it is unclear if these will be reached. In any case, Russia’s disapproval of the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and the US is not expected to lead to a regional crisis,” Korybko believes.