Russia vs Armenia: When “friendship” starts to fracture Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The reaction of the Russian political establishment to Armenia’s deepening cooperation with the European Union is growing increasingly harsh. This trend has become especially noticeable in the context of recent statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan regarding a potential withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

Just recently, the official representative of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, gave Yerevan a public “lesson,” warning about how “foul-smelling” Western money is—specifically, the €2.5 billion the EU intends to allocate to Armenia in the near future. She stated that “financial and economic assistance has long been a tool of influence used by the European Union to shape the policies of third countries, both externally and internally—in essence, it is interference in internal affairs.” According to Zakharova, Yerevan is being led on with promises of money that had already been pledged long ago, essentially taking advantage of the Armenians’ forgetfulness and naivety.

So how will the situation unfold within the Armenia–EU–Russia triangle, especially as one party threatens Yerevan with imminent sanctions for expanding its partnership with the European Union? Caliber.Az asks Russian and Belarusian political analysts for their take.

The Belarusian political analyst and chief expert at the Centre for Analytical Forecasting, Alexey Chernov, believes that Armenia stands on the brink of a sharp economic and political conflict with Russia.

“It is obvious that contradictions have been accumulating and, in fact, have already accumulated — this is a situation where a critical mass has reached its limit, after which a release usually occurs. With this conflict, it is clear that Russia is ‘fed up’ with Armenia’s pro-Western activity and is ready very soon to impose a series of sensitive sanctions against Yerevan. What exactly these sanctions will be is still an open question, but it is clear they will affect the consumer interests of certain parts of Armenian society. And then the domino effect will begin.

Understandably, these measures will provoke outrage in Armenia, likely sparking a new wave of anti-Russian sentiment, which in turn will lead to some anti-Russian actions. It is very possible that protests will periodically take place around the Russian military base in Gyumri, that a campaign against symbols of Russian culture will start, and so on. In other words, the situation will escalate like a snowball rolling down a mountain that will be impossible to stop.

Pashinyan has already taken many steps aimed at rapprochement with the European Union, which Russia cannot and does not want to accept. There will be no more compromises. Maria Zakharova’s statement a few days ago demonstrated that Russia views Armenia as a dangerous foreign agent on its borders, that Yerevan has crossed all red lines, and that it is time to act harshly. A certain legislative springboard is even ready — for example, Russia announced its intention to impose sanctions against members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) whose products do not meet Moscow’s specified criteria. Other EAEU countries may join the Kremlin’s sanctions. And I think the most interesting question is how other Customs Union members will react when Russia calls on them to take similar measures. Although I believe it is predictable: Belarus will respond, but other EAEU participants may not support Russia’s sanctions,” Chernov said.

Meanwhile, Russian political analyst and South Caucasus expert Alexander Ryabtsov believes that it will not be easy for Moscow to use sanctions against Armenia, given that Russia, in essence, cannot unilaterally force Armenia to leave the CSTO or the EAEU. However, it is fully capable of striking at Armenian interests.

“Since there is no mechanism to ‘expel’ Armenia from these organisations, Russia will likely try to influence Yerevan by imposing new customs duties and tariffs on Armenian goods entering the Russian market. This is the most probable scenario, and this has already been mentioned. The most interesting point is that, since the EAEU legislation automatically applies to all member states, directly depriving Yerevan of customs privileges is not possible. A reason must be found proving that Armenia violates EAEU trade principles; this must be proven in the organisation’s arbitration court, and only on that basis can some privileges be revoked. This is an extremely complex process, so most likely Moscow will act differently, introducing sanctions on certain groups of Armenian goods within Russia, which can also severely hit Armenian export revenues.

Another question is how Armenia will respond. Various scenarios are possible here, including that Pashinyan might again smooth over misunderstandings with Moscow, agree to some temporary compromise, or, on the contrary, escalate the conflict, thereby setting a precedent for all EAEU members, which could seriously damage the viability of this organisation,” Ryabtsov stated.