OPEC raises forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised upwards its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, according to its latest monthly report.

OPEC expects world oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 compared to last year, unchanged from last month's estimate, reaching 105.14 million bpd.

For 2026, the forecast has been increased to a growth of 1.4 million bpd.

The estimate for the first quarter of 2025 was slightly lowered by 40,000 bpd to 104.29 million bpd, while the second quarter forecast was raised by the same amount to 104.34 million bpd.

Projections for the third and fourth quarters remain unchanged at 105.53 million bpd and 106.36 million bpd, respectively.

The lower-than-expected actual demand in the first quarter of 2025 from OECD Asia-Pacific countries and non-OECD nations was largely offset by higher-than-anticipated consumption in OECD countries in North and South America, as well as Europe.

Minor downward adjustments to the second-quarter forecasts for OECD Asia-Pacific, China, and India were balanced by upward revisions for OECD Europe and the Middle East, analysts noted.

Looking ahead to 2026, OPEC has raised its global oil demand growth outlook by about 100,000 bpd amid expectations of improved economic performance in OECD countries across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. This puts projected global oil consumption for 2026 at 106.52 million bpd.

Demand growth within OECD countries is expected to increase by roughly 200,000 bpd year-on-year, with the United States anticipated to lead this rise. Non-OECD countries are forecast to see demand growth of 1.2 million bpd, primarily driven by Asian economies.

On the supply side, preliminary data show that commercial oil stocks in OECD countries stood at 2.789 billion barrels in June, down by 3.2 million barrels from the previous month and 158.6 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average — the benchmark level for OPEC+ countries controlling commercial stock levels.

Crude oil inventories fell by 9.6 million barrels to 1.348 billion barrels, while stocks of petroleum products increased by 6.3 million barrels to 1.441 billion barrels over the month.

Overall, commercial crude oil stocks were 12.2 million barrels lower than a year ago and 117.4 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average. Petroleum product stocks were down by 45.7 million barrels compared to the previous year and 41.2 million barrels below the five-year average.

By Aghakazim Guliyev