“Moscow is interested in Erdogan’s visit to Ukraine” Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Currently, the Ukrainian side is actively working on organising a visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

This was stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine by Türkiye’s ambassador to Ukraine, Nariman Dzhelyal. The diplomat also noted that the personal invitation to the Turkish leader was extended by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“This visit requires significant efforts, as there are many issues hindering its implementation,” the ambassador said. According to him, Kyiv is working on arranging the visit, but the trip has not yet been confirmed.

What are the main goals of a possible Erdogan visit to Ukraine? How might it be perceived by Moscow? Ukrainian political analysts answer these questions for Caliber.Az.

According to international affairs expert Maksim Yali, the possible visit will undoubtedly address both bilateral relations and Türkiye’s role as a mediator in resolving the Russia-Ukraine war.

“If we talk about bilateral relations, there will certainly be the ratification of the already signed free trade agreement, as well as discussions about Türkiye’s participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war ends. Why now? I believe the main issue will concern Türkiye’s mediating role in resolving the Russia-Ukraine war and, most importantly, organising a meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia under Erdogan’s personal mediation. He is working to make this visit happen. As is known, President Zelenskyy insists specifically on a bilateral meeting.

Considering Erdogan’s good relations with both Zelenskyy and Putin, the Turkish leader is the best mediator, which, in principle, was even acknowledged by US President Donald Trump,” the expert noted.

In his opinion, the visit will not be negatively perceived by Russia, since Moscow itself supports Türkiye’s mediating role in negotiations with Ukraine. It is no coincidence that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul both in 2022 and currently. Moreover, a possible leaders-level meeting is reportedly being prepared there now. Undoubtedly, President Zelenskyy is also interested in Erdogan making efforts to ensure that this meeting takes place.

Answering the question of whether Baku and Ankara have a shared approach to strengthening relations with Ukraine and how this correlates with the current tension between Baku and Moscow, Yali said that the cooling of Azerbaijani-Russian relations is primarily related to Russia’s actions towards Azerbaijan.

“There is a whole chain of disagreements between Baku and Moscow, beginning with the downing of an Azerbaijani aircraft in Russian airspace and Putin’s failure to apologise to Baku for this incident, effectively not recognising it. Then Moscow initiated a wave of persecution against representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora, and this process continues.

Naturally, Moscow is irritated by Baku’s humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Certain recent statements by the President of Azerbaijan, especially when he was presented with Ukrainian army insignia, caused extreme displeasure in the Kremlin.

However, the main factor is that Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus is fading, and Azerbaijan has become a full-fledged player not only in the region but also on a much broader stage, including deepening relations with Israel and the United States,” Yali concluded.

Political analyst and economist Oleksandr Okhrimenko believes that during Erdogan’s visit to Kyiv, he will try to reach an agreement with Zelenskyy to solidify his personal role as a mediator in ending the war between Ukraine and Russia. 

In his view, even minimal progress in this area would significantly strengthen the Turkish president’s position in international politics, especially in Asia: “If Erdogan manages to advance the process of ending this war even slightly, his authority will greatly increase throughout Asia and the Caucasus.”

He also highlighted Türkiye’s strategic interests in the Black Sea region, where stability is of great importance to Ankara.

“For Erdogan, it is important that the Black Sea remains a sea of peace. War in this region harms Türkiye’s interests, which is also keen to maintain economic ties with Russia, particularly in the energy sector. Therefore, peace in the region aligns with Ankara’s interests. In any case, Türkiye buys oil from Russia and would like to continue buying it without problems, so that Turkish tankers and commercial ships can freely navigate the Black Sea and access both Ukrainian and Russian ports,” he noted.

At the same time, the expert suggests that the current activity of the Turkish leader may also be prompted by the Kremlin’s initiative: “I do not rule out that Erdogan’s trip to Zelenskyy is primarily at the request of the Kremlin.”

However, the effectiveness of such mediation missions, in his opinion, remains highly uncertain: “How successful it will be is hard to say. As we can see even from Donald Trump’s example, the results of such attempts have not been impressive.”

He also pointed out Azerbaijan’s role in the regional configuration and its ties with Türkiye and Ukraine, as well as the importance of energy cooperation, including a project to create a gas corridor bypassing Russia.

“Currently, there are talks about laying a gas pipeline from Central Asia under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. This would create an alternative gas supply route bypassing Russia,” he explained.

According to him, Türkiye will play a key role in implementing such a project, as it will be able to direct the gas further into Europe: “The gas will arrive in Türkiye, and from there, through pipelines, it will be transported to Europe. This is a very interesting topic, and Azerbaijan would most likely want to implement it.”

He also recalled the recent deliveries of Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine, which open new prospects for economic cooperation.

“Ukraine recently purchased Azerbaijani gas for the first time via the Turkish gas pipeline (the Trans-Balkan Main Gas Pipeline, or Trans-Balkan Corridor, which runs through Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, and Türkiye — editor’s note). In the future, it is quite possible that Ukraine will continue to buy gas using Türkiye as a transit country,” Okhrimenko concluded.