Trump set to visit China amid trade tensions, critical minerals concerns

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China from March 31 to April 2, a White House official said, marking a highly anticipated meeting amid tensions between the world’s two largest economies, Reuters reports.

Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping during the three-day visit, as both sides weigh whether to extend a trade truce that paused tariff escalation, the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity about details not yet publicly disclosed.

Analysts say one issue is likely to “cast a shadow” over the negotiations: America’s reliance on China for gallium and other strategic resources. China’s temporary suspension of export restrictions on gallium and several other metals to the US is set to expire in November. In any trade talks, the Trump administration’s immediate goal will likely be to avoid escalating tensions over critical minerals, buying time to develop alternative supply sources.

As with other key raw materials such as heavy rare earths, China dominates the global market for gallium, a metal used widely in semiconductors, solar cells, and electric vehicles. China accounts for nearly 99% of global primary production, while the US imports 100% of its gallium, with about 95% coming from China, according to Minerals Make Life, a project of the US National Mining Association.

America’s dependence on Chinese critical minerals has emerged as a strategic vulnerability during the US-China trade war. Beijing has previously restricted exports of several strategic materials, causing shortages for Western firms of critical inputs like rare earth magnets. After the trade truce in November, China temporarily suspended a ban on shipping gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US for one year.

“The critical minerals issue will likely cast a shadow over the visit given that China has only temporarily paused — not eliminated — most of its restrictions,” said Aidan Powers-Riggs, associate fellow for China studies at the iDeas Lab, Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Tomasz Nadrowski, investor and author of Mineral War, noted the US could eventually develop an alternative gallium supply chain with allies, but “the problem would not be solved this year or next.” Developing new sources would require “tweaks” to major alumina refineries outside China, including Alcoa in Australia or Rio Tinto in Canada.

“China is not ‘relaxing’ controls — it is currently imposing tighter restrictions on Japan,” Nadrowski said. “This strategy of using critical minerals for every problem is as naive as America’s usage of tariffs … Both are blunt instruments: effective in the short term, very damaging in the longer term.”

By Vafa Guliyeva