Iran — Israel: War for total victory Experts discuss what’s next

The military conflict in the Middle East is becoming increasingly critical. Although Israel claims that Iranian attacks are highly ineffective, the geographic scope of strikes against the Israeli state is expanding, and the number of innocent victims is rising. In Iran, the death and injury toll has already reached hundreds, and media outlets are showing videos of columns of Iranians hastily leaving Tehran.

How will Israel and Iran act next? Who has greater resilience and nerves? With these questions, a Caliber.Az correspondent turned to an Israeli military expert and a Russian orientalist.

According to the author of a military-analytical YouTube channel and Israeli military expert, Sergey Auslander, Israel is achieving increasing success in military operations.

“In recent days, a number of Iranian generals have been killed — something that has never really happened before. The intensity of Iranian attacks on Israel has noticeably decreased, and there is less and less of a certain established regularity; the process is becoming more chaotic. This is because the Israeli air force dominates the Iranian skies and is literally hunting down Iranian missile launchers,” the expert noted.

According to him, nearly half of Iran’s missile launchers have already been destroyed. They are effectively becoming a disposable resource — they manage to “fire” once, and then they get “hit.”

“The areas where the launches take place are more or less known to Israel, since it’s impossible to constantly move and transport the launchers from place to place. Often, they are detected precisely at the moment of relocation. At the same time, the Israeli army successfully detects and destroys this military equipment both day and night. Apparently, this is actively aided by an established network of space satellites. In addition, for example, the F-35 fighters have an optical sensor system capable of detecting ballistic missile launches, with a range of about one and a half thousand kilometres. Thus, this aircraft currently serves as a guidance and control hub — it is constantly in the air and, as soon as a new target is detected, it directs other aircraft there,” the expert explained.

He believes it can be confidently stated that Iran’s air defence is now almost completely destroyed—at least because an American Hercules transport aircraft, known as a “clear-sky aircraft,” was seen flying over Tehran, despite being threatened by bursts from anti-aircraft guns.

In his opinion, it can be confidently stated that Iranian air defence systems have been almost completely destroyed — if only because an American Hercules transport aircraft, which can be called a “clear sky plane,” was seen flying over Tehran. Even this aircraft is threatened by bursts from anti-aircraft guns.

“And if it was flying, and judging by the footage at a fairly low altitude, that means Israeli pilots have no fear of being shot down and do not see any threats at all. I believe the question of the United States entering the war on Israel’s side is currently being decided, and this is also related to the ‘clear sky’ situation, because the United States can now not fear strikes on their bases in the Middle East. They can now intervene decisively, bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, and after that, the Iranian nuclear issue will be resolved once and for all. If not, then I can definitely tell those wondering, ‘How long will Israel continue bombing Iran?’ — it will be until Israel concludes that the Iranian nuclear program no longer exists or is in such a state that it has practically lost its potential. As soon as such conclusions are reached, the bombings will stop,” said Auslander.

According to Russian journalist and orientalist Marianna Belenkaya, the situation changes every five minutes, with many unpredictable factors at play—particularly the actions of the U.S. president.

“In principle, Iran’s statements indicate that Tehran would like to resume negotiations and agree on a ceasefire. However, the Islamic Republic of Iran is in such a position that it cannot publicly make concessions as its opponents wish—quickly and outright. Therefore, Iran’s number one task now is to agree to negotiations without making any clear promises, at least to temporarily halt military actions. Yet, it does not seem that Israel and the U.S. are ready to accept this. As a form of protest, Iran might also withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but that would raise the stakes for the U.S. to join the operation and start striking Iran. At least, the media reports that Trump is currently considering such an option. However, all this could also be a bluff, just like Tehran’s threats to leave the Treaty.

Moreover, at this point, we do not know who else among Iran’s leadership might be eliminated in the coming days, or how the Israeli Air Force and other military branches will act — all of this makes it difficult to make accurate predictions. Israel is gaining increasing advantage, disabling more and more Iranian missile launchers, damaging nuclear and military infrastructure, and, what is especially significant, striking oil and gas facilities. So, Iran has fewer and fewer options left,” the expert said.

In her view, the Islamic Republic of Iran might also activate its covert “capabilities,” such as organising terrorist attacks in various parts of the Middle East and beyond. But that would be a long-term prospect, whereas at this stage, the Islamic Republic simply needs to recover, reorganise, and decide what to do next.

Some analysts and media outlets, in light of Iran’s losses and weakening authority, are asking: “Could this country explode from within, for example, under the pressure of mass protests?” According to the orientalist, such tendencies are not currently observed in Iranian society.

“Of course, there is a certain degree of confusion, but that is quite understandable in such a situation. Despite isolated cases of dissatisfaction with the authorities, overall there is even a certain consolidation of society in the face of a common threat,” Belenkaya concluded.