Kremlin’s bets and Chisinau’s calculations Experts on Russian interference in Moldova vote

In a televised address to the nation, Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated that Russia is planning to actively interfere in the parliamentary elections scheduled for this autumn. According to her, the threat extends beyond the situation in Moscow-controlled Transnistria.

"Russia’s plan is to take control of the situation across all of Moldova. This process has already begun," Sandu emphasised.

The president urged citizens to remain vigilant, expressing concerns that Moscow may provoke a new wave of crisis in Transnistria in order to destabilise the country and influence voting on the left bank of the Dniester River.

"All these years, Russia has used the residents of Transnistria, and at any moment, it could trigger an even greater crisis if it serves its plans in Moldova. We can expect the deepening of this crisis in the coming months, before the elections," she noted.

President Sandu did not rule out attempts by Russia to bribe or blackmail voters by artificially creating instability in the region.

“Russia may promise aid in exchange for votes on the right bank. We can expect all kinds of manipulations,” she added.

At the same time, the head of state assured that the relevant authorities are taking all necessary measures to ensure free and fair elections.

“We will do everything possible to make sure the elections are genuine,” Sandu stated, noting that Chisinau is ready to provide support to the population on the left bank of the Dniester. However, the key issue remains the withdrawal of Russian troops.

How likely is it that pro-Russian forces will come to power in Moldova after the elections, and is Chisinau prepared to prevent such a scenario? International analysts shared their assessments with Caliber.Az.

Moldovan political analyst Victor Ciobanu considers the rise to power of pro-Russian parties a strategic goal of the Kremlin.

“Moldova is a parliamentary republic — whoever holds the majority in parliament holds the power,” Ciobanu said.

According to him, the “Georgian scenario” has long been adapted to Moldovan realities and was actively tested during last year’s presidential election and the referendum on European integration.

“Back then, the Kremlin lost, but this year the arsenal of hybrid warfare will be expanded — from dirty money and propaganda to energy blackmail,” the expert noted.

Ciobanu predicts that closer to the elections, Russia may reduce or completely cut off gas supplies to Transnistria, which would destabilise the region and become a leverage point to pressure voters. Provocations similar to those that occurred in 2022 are also not ruled out.

“At last year’s referendum, about 30% of Transnistrians voted in favour of the EU — this gives some reason for optimism. According to recent polls, the ruling party PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity) is gaining around 35% and leads by a wide margin. Support from the diaspora in the EU also strengthens its position. At the same time, the pro-Russian opposition has not yet fully united behind a common platform.

The coalition of socialists, communists, the party of former Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev, and the former governor of Gagauzia, Irina Vlah, under the ‘For Moldova’ platform, as well as the possible inclusion of parties affiliated with Ilan Shor, indicates an attempt by the Kremlin to create a united front. However, the actual level of support for this coalition remains unclear.

If PAS does not receive more than 50%, centrist blocs such as ‘Alternative’ or ‘Our Party’ — which according to polls also have a chance to enter parliament — could play a decisive role in forming a coalition,” Ciobanu said.

Russian political analyst Mikhail Neyzhmakov refers to data from an iData survey conducted between May 17 and 24, 2025, which shows that the PAS party enjoys the support of 27.5% of respondents.

“That is a good figure, but insufficient to form a government on its own,” he explains.

At the same time, the Socialists and the Shor-led “Victory” bloc garner 11.6% and 11.2% respectively, which also does not allow them to form a majority independently.

According to the analyst, the “Alternative” and “Our Party” blocs could become the “third force” in parliament. Alexandr Stoianoglo, one of the leaders of “Alternative,” advocates a multi-vector policy and supports European integration. Renato Usatîi, leader of “Our Party,” has previously stated that Moldova’s accession to neither the EU nor the EAEU is possible.

Neyzhmakov reminded that in Moldova’s history there have been cases when the opposition united to prevent the winning party from forming a government, as happened in 2009. However, under the current circumstances, the likelihood of such a scenario is not very high.

“Most likely, we can expect prolonged negotiations over the composition of the future government. The higher PAS’s result, the easier it will be for them to find partners. But representatives of the centrist forces will face a difficult situation — supporting the Socialists could alienate part of their electorate, while a coalition with PAS will require significant concessions,” the expert concluded.