PKK begins disarmament in Sulaymaniyah: Will peace finally prevail? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Iraq is expected to be completed within the next few months following the organisation’s announcement of its dissolution. This was reported by Ömer Çelik, the official representative of Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), in an interview with the NTV channel.

According to him, the disarmament process is already underway, having begun on Friday, July 11, in the northern Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah. The process will be overseen by a special verification mechanism involving personnel from Turkish intelligence and armed forces.

“The disarmament ... process (in Iraq) needs to be completed within three to five months... If it exceeds this period, it will become vulnerable to provocations,” Çelik noted.

In May of this year, the PKK, which waged armed struggle against the Turkish state for more than 40 years, decided to dissolve itself and cease hostilities as part of the peace process with Türkiye. On July 11, militants began handing over their weapons in the northern Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah as part of the peace process with Türkiye.

Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK, in a rare video released on July 9, announced the end of the organisation’s armed struggle against the Turkish state, Reuters reports.

In the seven-minute recording, Öcalan called on the Turkish parliament to establish a special commission to oversee the disarmament process and to organise a broader peace process.

“The phase of armed struggle has ended. This is not a loss, but a historic gain,” Öcalan stated. “The armed struggle stage must now be voluntarily replaced by a phase of democratic politics and law.”

The leader of the Kurdish militants also urged the DEM party, which currently holds the third-largest number of seats in the Turkish parliament, to cooperate with other political forces and to operate exclusively through democratic mechanisms.

Can we hope that these intentions will lead to success? That Kurdish terrorism will cease to exist within a few months, and Türkiye will finally be freed from this longstanding threat?

Renowned regional experts shared their views on this with Caliber.Az.

Ruslan Suleymanov, an expert on the Middle East, notes that this is indeed a major event for Türkiye, opening significant prospects for ending underground terrorist activities on its territory originating from neighbouring states.

“But much will depend on the political process. This is what all PKK statements have emphasized — the change of the Kurds’ status within the Turkish state. Ideally, as one might assume, this would involve amendments to the Turkish constitution, which is difficult to even imagine.

The Turkish constitution explicitly states that a citizen of the republic is a Turk, not a Kurd. All citizens of Türkiye are Turks, regardless of religious or ethnic background. Meanwhile, the Kurds essentially insist on changing this provision, which, of course, triggers negative reactions in nationalist circles. So this remains a subject of discussion: how the political process will develop, whether there will be constitutional changes, other laws, internal regulations regarding the Kurds — quotas, expanded autonomy, and so forth — we do not know yet. But the success of the PKK’s disarmament and its transformation from a terrorist organisation into a political entity depends precisely on the development of the political process,” the Middle East expert said.

In his view, it is unfortunately impossible to completely eliminate the threat of terrorism. If the political process reaches a deadlock, if the concessions expected by PKK leaders are not made, and if they claim that Kurds are not receiving the anticipated rights, this could lead to new terrorist attacks and the resumption of underground activities.

“So, all attention is now focused on the political process, and in particular on the activities of the DEM party (Democracy and Peoples’ Equality Party).

The DEM party, in turn, insists that elected mayors and municipal leaders, where its representatives win, must not be removed from office. Very often, they are simply dismissed and detained. This is a fairly common practice in eastern and southeastern Türkiye. DEM hopes that the political process will lead to the end of this practice. These officials were usually removed on charges of terrorism. DEM wants to put an end to this. How successful this process will be will largely determine the success of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s disarmament,” Suleymanov emphasises.

Mehmet Emin İkbal Dürre, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Middle East expert, and Associate Professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University, believes that the Kurdish issue is one of the most complex in the region, with deep historical roots.

“It concerns not only Türkiye but also Iran, Iraq, and Syria. I believe that the dissolution of the PKK will open new opportunities to address this issue not only in Türkiye but also in the aforementioned countries.

Now, constitutional changes are expected in Türkiye. These will take into account the reasons that have hindered the resolution not only of the Kurdish issue but also of other important problems. President Erdoğan has repeatedly spoken about the need for a new constitution.

Specifically regarding the Kurds — much will depend on developments in Syria. If Syrian Kurds can reach a consensus with the new Syrian authorities, I believe peace in the region will become more durable,” the associate professor stated.

Turkish analyst, Doctor of Political Science, and Professor Haydar Çakmak, on the other hand, believes that neither Öcalan nor Erdoğan have a real ability to force the PKK to disarm.

“This is a new game being played by Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These three countries demanded, and the PKK laid down its arms, with the support of the Talabani and Barzani families. Only Israel, the UK, and the US can convince the Talabani and Barzani families. Talks of regional peace are nothing more than a beautiful façade. Disarming is a fiction for the Turkish nation. They can take up arms again whenever they want. Right now, they are just burning part of their old arsenal for show. It’s a pure game,” the professor believes.