Europe closes its eyes—and borders Experts weigh migration crisis amid Israel-Iran conflict

Prolonged escalation in the Middle East could trigger a new wave of migration. The 2014 conflict already led to a significant influx of migrants into Europe and became a catalyst for political turbulence within the European Union, fuelling the rise of right-wing Eurosceptic forces.

As of today, 11 out of the 29 Schengen Agreement countries have already introduced or plan to introduce border controls, sparking the first frictions between states. For instance, disputes have arisen between Polish and German border guards due to their mutual refusal to accept refugees.

Brussels is being forced to respond to growing pressure by taking steps to restrict migration. An additional cause for concern is the potential rise in terrorist threats as a new wave of migrants from Iran and the Gaza Strip begins to form.

Adding to this is a demographic crisis: the European Union is witnessing a decline in birth rates and a shrinking population, which is gradually being replaced by migrants. This may further intensify centrifugal forces within the EU itself.

Will the current conflict lead to a mass exodus of Palestinians and Iranians to Europe? And is the European Union capable of handling such a challenge?

International experts shared their views with Caliber.Az.

Samer Rashed Elias, a Danish analyst and expert in international relations, believes that the migration issue remains extremely sensitive in Europe.

“There is no unified strategy within the EU to reduce the flow of refugees. There were hopes for stabilisation in Syria and the return of those refugees who have not received citizenship or permanent status. However, it is still too early to speak of full security in Syria.

The situation with Iran presents a challenge not only for Europe, but also for Russia, the South Caucasus, and Central Asian countries. A mass exodus would impact the humanitarian situation, complicate the fight against terrorism, and undermine regional security.

What matters most now is to stop the military escalation as soon as possible, without triggering regime change in Iran or civil war—both of which would inevitably lead to large-scale displacement,” the expert emphasised.

According to Elias, the European Union lacks a common migration policy supported by all 27 member states.

“We’re witnessing the growing strength of right-wing parties—especially in Germany, where they gained over 20% of the vote. This puts pressure on national governments. Following criticism from Trump, the EU has tightened its migration rules. Proposals are being discussed to establish screening camps outside EU borders, where it will be determined who has the right to enter and who doesn’t.

This tightening has spread across nearly the entire Union. Even countries traditionally sympathetic to migrants, like Norway and Sweden, are changing their approach. In Sweden, a far-right party—despite not being in government—effectively sets the agenda on migration.

Italy is already governed by the right. France and other countries are also toughening their immigration policies. If the Schengen Area is effectively dismantled and internal border controls are reinstated, it would strike at the heart of the entire European integration project,” Elias explains.

He shared that over the past year and a half, he visited Greece, the Netherlands, and Belgium.

“I saw many young people from Gaza on the streets of Brussels, Athens, and Crete. After the war ends or if Trump’s plan for Gaza is implemented, their numbers will surge. Gaza has become uninhabitable. Even with sustained financial aid, it will take decades to rebuild.

Additionally, migration flows from Afghanistan are passing through Iran. While Europe does need a labour force, there are growing voices calling to preserve the continent’s Christian identity. This is despite the fact that birth rates among second-generation migrants have already matched local levels.

Nevertheless, given the consequences of the conflicts in Gaza and Iran, Europe will face enormous challenges. Migration volumes could surpass even the Syrian crisis of 2015–2016,” the expert concludes.

Isa Javadov, a German political scientist and Master of International Relations from the University of Bremen, believes it is too early to speak of a full-scale crisis.

“The open confrontation between Iran and Israel is still escalating, and there remains hope that both sides will limit themselves to a series of retaliatory strikes. As for Gaza, a mass exodus under current Israeli blockade conditions is not feasible. The population perceives the relocation plan proposed by Trump and Netanyahu negatively—there is a real fear of ethnic cleansing.

Even if such migration flows begin, there is no reason to expect a terrorist threat. The Iranian and Palestinian diasporas in the EU are well integrated and not prone to radicalisation. Groups like Hamas are focused on local actions and do not carry out attacks abroad,” the analyst explains.

According to Javadov, Europe has already undergone a similar experience in 2022 when it took in millions of Ukrainians.

“This sparked intense debate in parliaments over the viability of benefits and support measures. With ongoing energy and defence crises, resources are limited. As a result, some countries have already suspended payments and are refusing to renew residence permits for those who failed to find employment within the designated time frame.

The criteria for political asylum are being tightened. Priority is now given to skilled migrants—especially from Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Less suitable applicants may be left in their countries of origin or redirected to third countries, following the example of Syrian refugees in Türkiye,” Javadov explains.

Serhiy Danylov, Deputy Director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (Kyiv), believes the threat of a new wave of refugees from Iran is entirely realistic.

“Iran has already entered a phase of deep economic and social upheaval. If the regime survives, it will resort to violence to suppress protests. If it falls, chaos and possibly civil war will follow. In either scenario, part of the population will try to flee the country.

Türkiye is unlikely to once again serve as a transit hub for refugees, as it did during the Syrian crisis. There is neither political will nor public demand. Increased migration pressure on the South Caucasus is possible, but from there, a direct route to the EU is lacking,” the expert says.

Danylov suggests that a potential migration crisis will take a different form this time.

“Most likely, the EU will allocate funds to establish camps—either in neighbouring countries or in safe zones within Iran itself. This carries risks in terms of security and political consequences, but such an approach seems more likely than a return to the ‘open-door’ policy of the Angela Merkel era,” he concluded.