The crisis chain between Baku and Moscow From the downed plane to the Yekaterinburg raid

Amid the cooling of relations between Baku and Moscow, the question arises about the possible consequences not only in the sphere of interstate dialogue but also in everyday life. In particular, attention is drawn to the situation of the numerous Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia — both Azerbaijani citizens and Russian citizens of Azerbaijani origin.

How likely is it that the ongoing developments will lead to changes in the socio-economic or legal spheres? Or will the parties manage to find ways to de-escalate?

Renowned experts shared their views on this with Caliber.Az.

Russian political analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the After Empire portal, Olga Kurnosova, began by suggesting an attempt to trace the logic behind the development of the situation.

“It’s clear that any crime committed 25 years ago cannot be the actual reason for what happened in Yekaterinburg. It was merely used as a pretext. The question is: why was this pretext used? The second question is: did those who carried out the operation coordinate their actions with Moscow? In my opinion, they most likely did. The third question is: did Moscow or the executors themselves know that among those they would be detaining so harshly were Azerbaijani citizens? I believe they simply did not pay close enough attention to who they were going after and didn’t realise that there would not only be ethnic Azerbaijanis, but also citizens of Azerbaijan. And so, things turned out the way they did.

What I see now is that, formally, there is an exchange of rather harsh blows.

The geography of the persecution of Azerbaijanis in Russia is expanding. But what’s happening in Azerbaijan, in my view, is much more painful for the Kremlin. I’m referring not only to the detention of FSB officers and other Russian citizens, but also to the cancellation of all planned bilateral agreements, events, and engagements,” the expert noted.

According to the analyst, the Russian side may currently be seeking a way to de-escalate tensions.

“But as we saw in the case of the downed Azerbaijani aircraft, the Kremlin doesn’t know how to fully back down. It doesn’t know how to apologise or offer compensation for damages.

That’s why I believe behind-the-scenes consultations are now taking place in search of a mutually acceptable solution. Depending on whether an agreement can be reached, we may see corresponding further actions.

If no agreement is reached, then unfortunately, a variety of scenarios could unfold. We are already witnessing a large-scale campaign on social media — various aggressive statements are being made. There’s a sense that this kind of rhetoric may be not only coordinated but also ‘self-organised’ and coming from the grassroots.

It’s clear that the situation could become more severe, especially given the significant number of ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Russia. On the other hand, if pressure really does increase, I believe Azerbaijanis also have the resources to respond. It’s also important that they are supported by their own state — that gives them confidence and strength,” Kurnosova emphasised.

The situation is not an easy one for Moscow, she believes.

“Let’s not forget that Azerbaijan is not alone. In such situations — and not only these — it is consistently supported by Türkiye. This is an objective factor that must also be taken into account when shaping policy. The Kremlin has found itself in a difficult position and, judging by a number of signs, is trying to find a way out.

For instance, the leader of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg was detained, but was soon reclassified as a witness and released. This could be a signal that a path toward de-escalation is beginning to take shape,” the expert suggests.

Azerbaijani MP and political analyst Rasim Musabayov, for his part, believes that the initiative for the deterioration of relations with Azerbaijan did not come from Baku.

“It was on Russian territory that an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft was shot down, and we still have not received from official Moscow any response or actions in line not only with international legal norms, but also with the high level of relations between our countries. As for the recent incident in Yekaterinburg, it indeed drew widespread attention. It is hard to imagine that such actions took place without the knowledge of Russia’s top leadership. We expected a clear response to the outrageous behaviour of the security forces, which led to the deaths of Azerbaijanis.

Azerbaijan cannot accept such silence and disregard. And that is precisely why it is responding — to the extent it deems necessary. Moreover, to be fair, these responses have been rather restrained,” Musabayov noted.

According to him, the response of Russia’s top leadership to these incidents will be key in determining the future direction of bilateral relations.

“Incidents of this kind — and more importantly, the lack of an adequate response to them — only deepen mistrust. The current chill in our relations risks turning into a deep rift. I do not rule out that some of the achievements we once regarded as fundamental pillars of our partnership may gradually be rolled back, step by step.

The Baltic states neighbouring Russia have already reduced their relations to nearly zero. Georgia has also significantly scaled down its interaction with the Russian Federation. And if the situation does not change, Azerbaijan may be forced to follow a similar path. At the same time, we are not seeking to make Russia into an enemy. But under the current circumstances, calling it a friend is extremely difficult.

Nevertheless, Moscow still has a chance to make things right. Russia’s top leadership has the capacity to show political will and adopt a rational position that reflects both the level of our bilateral relations and basic norms of international law.

Arrogance is out of place here. And if it persists, Azerbaijan will stop making demands and will instead build its relationship with Russia strictly based on observable realities and actual developments,” the MP concluded.