"Traitorous" Sunak vs Continuity Boris
Tory drama in full swing

ANALYTICS  18 July 2022 - 10:20

The Tory leadership race, in parts akin to a psychodrama, is in full swing, yet the denouement is yet to come. The ultimate duel, once the field is whittled down to two, will very likely be between Rishi Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, who played a critical role in prompting the incumbent PM to agree to resign, and either Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, or Penny Mordaunt, who are both Johnson loyalists.

Anyone but Sunak

The shadow of the outgoing Prime Minister’s grand figure looms large over the scenery. Its import will be even more substantial once the 160.000-strong Tory membership comes into the equation, picking the ultimate winner on a postal vote. Johnson himself has not backed any of the contestants. However, it has been heard on the grapevine that the PM has been urging defeated Tory leadership candidates to back any of the remaining contenders except the ex-Chancellor.

Prior to the third vote by Conservative MPs, the most important question is if Sunak will remain a clear front-runner, and if so, who will follow him. What makes the arithmetic of the whole design even more complicated is that it is not just the question of how many votes a given contestant will get, but also of how eliminated contenders will behave and in whose favour they will ask their supporters to vote.

For instance, Jeremy Hunt, Former Foreign Secretary, who is currently Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, was eliminated at the very outset of the race and threw his support behind Sunak. Suella Braveman knocked out in the second round, urged her supporters to back Liz Truss.

After the second round of the vote cast by the Tory MPs – 356 out of 358 were involved – Rishi Sunak leads the pack with 101 votes, closely followed by Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss, who have garnered the backing of 83 and 64 of their fellow Conservative parliamentarians, respectively.

Former Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch (49 votes) and Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat (32) are still in the running - unlikely to gain sufficient support to hope to make it to the run-off, but their preference will be impactful. Both are Brexiteers free of residual 'Remain' traces.

Badenoch appears like a breath of fresh air. She is a sort of Tory that the public is not accustomed to; coming from a minority background, she has denounced identity politics and liberal "wokism". A former engineer, she has pitched herself as a problem-solver.

Tugendhat, on the other hand, is a former army officer and 'One Nation Conservative' of the Cameron-Osborne ilk. 'A clean start' seems to feature a lot in his rhetoric. His argumentation is clear and his style is very 'statesmanlike'. A Johnson critic, he is unlikely to back Truss or Mordaunt, although the nature of his attitude towards Sunak remains unclear.

Internal dualism

One significant portion of votes will go to a contestant who is a Borisite and can garner the support of the staunch Brexiteer segment of the party.

At present, the battle within this segment is between Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt. The Foreign Secretary has not resigned from Johnson’s cabinet as a sign of loyalty. She is experienced. She can also claim that she did not go to a private school, rendering her capable of feeling the plight of commoners - such alleged life experience is appealing to some prejudiced sections of class-conscious Britain.

She has been endorsed by the venerable Jacob-Rees Mogg, which is a significant factor. The Minister for Brexit Opportunities made it abundantly clear he would not support anyone who had betrayed Johnson, denouncing Sunak in a way that could not have been clearer.  Nadine Dorris, another top government figure, has also backed Truss, increasing the latter's chances.

Penny Mordaunt is perhaps not as equally Borisite as Liz Truss, but she does still form part of the project for which the key creed is that if we lost our Churchill, let us make a new Thatcher. The allusion to the Iron Lady has already been propounded by the Foreign Secretary and, to a lesser extent, by Mordaunt.

The latter is a fresh face at the top of British politics. Considered by some to be 'too woke' on trans rights, she is nevertheless a figure that is associated with old British values, as could be ascertained from her campaign video. However, her record as a junior trade minister is not perceived to be unequivocally brilliant.

In fact, former Brexit Minister Lord Frost expressed her 'grave reservations' about Mordaunt’s competence, and there are some others who appear to be involved in a campaign of casting aspersions on her prospects. Ian Duncan Smith, a former Tory leader, despite not saying anything directly disparaging about Mordaunt, questioned her ability to make tough decisions and expressed his support for Truss.

One source close to Number 10 and the ruling party privately told me that, if the Tories were electing a leader of the opposition, Mordaunt would have probably won, but as they are electing a Prime Minister, the likelihood is that Sunak will get the better of his rival. The former Chancellor is perceived to be competent and he is a decent debater with a great deal of manoeuvrability. He would probably prefer Truss in the final two, as the latter is considered by some to lack the ability of sharp reaction.

Dr Patrick Walsh, an Irish historian, on the other hand, believes the Tory membership, by virtue of its composition, would rather favour Mordaunt and Truss against Sunak. Walsh also seems to be of the opinion that there are some "anti-Irish sentiments within the British establishment" - Mordaunt is of Irish stock - which may militate against the Trade Policy Minister's fortunes.

In the meantime, Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer, as befitting the Leader of the Opposition looking at opportunities to produce disparaging comments on the ruling party, described the Conservatives as “dysfunctional”, and “totally in disarray”, likening them to a “travelling circus”. Neil Watson, a British journalist and longstanding Labourite, believes his party should seize the moment and attack the incumbent government irrespective of the result.

For Labour, the downfall of Johnson is an opportunity to campaign for a new General Election. The Tory contenders seem to be mindful of this risk, and thus the importance of achieving their fifth historic victory has been mentioned by all candidates.

Here, it behoves one to recall that the 2019 landslide victory was inextricably intertwined with Boris Johnson, an indispensably critical figure. Many of those who had never previously voted for the Tories did so because of the now-outgoing Prime Minister's historic place in British history. It does not look as if any of the current hopefuls have that gravitas, esprit de corps and larger-than-life character that are integral to BoJo's persona.

In the same vein, one cannot help but think that the present Conservative leadership contest, despite being undoubtedly dramatic and replete with recriminations and grand vows, is not of Shakespearean scale, for there is no Boris coveting the glittering prize.

For some, like the black tie-clad Jacob Rees-Mogg, a formidable man of high principles and a staunch Johnson loyalist, this means that the glory of the world has perished. For others who may beg to differ, it is a chance to reflect and renew. The party, the nation and the world at large remain expectant.  

Caliber.Az