Armenia's Western flirtation raises tensions with Russia Yerevan tries to sit on two chairs

Since Armenia's government approved the draft law for the country's EU accession process on January 9, Moscow has repeatedly voiced its dissatisfaction with Yerevan's actions. This issue was raised during a recent meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan in Moscow.

It is clear that Russia, which has largely tolerated Armenia's political manoeuvres and its flirtations with the West in recent years, is now pressuring Yerevan to choose between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union (EU). Moscow argues that Armenia cannot be a member of both organisations simultaneously, a stance that has been reiterated by the Russian government on several occasions. Just recently, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk made similar remarks, stating that Armenia's accession to the EU would lead to its departure from the EAEU and result in the closure of the Eurasian market to Armenia.

"The solution here is very clear. Opening markets with the European Union will mean closing markets with the Eurasian Economic Union. Otherwise, our producers in the Eurasian Economic Union will suffer, and this is obvious," said the Russian deputy prime minister, clarifying that for Armenia, "the removal of import customs duties with the EU will automatically mean returning to customs and tariff rules with the EAEU."

Continuing on this topic, the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry predicted an 80% reduction in Armenian exports, stressing that it would be impossible to replace Yerevan's trade with EAEU countries with alternative sources, even in the medium term.

The Russian diplomat also took the opportunity to highlight that Armenia's exports have increased tenfold since 2015, with the majority of this growth attributed to trade with Russia. He reminded that last year, the republic's trade turnover with Russia alone approached $12 billion.

"Goods—here we are talking about Armenia—no one in Europe and the U.S. is waiting for them. If they were waiting, they would have already taken them, agree? What's the problem? Why aren't they taking them if they really want to help and these goods are so irreplaceable? They would have already taken them now!"—a sharp rebuke was directed by Maria Zakharova at the Armenian side.

Moscow's full rebuke in its statements towards Armenia shows that Russia still reacts strongly to Yerevan's European ambitions. This leaves little doubt that Moscow will continue to pressure Yerevan, using a policy of "soft" coercion.

However, despite the strong argument regarding the impossibility of Armenia being a member of both the EU and the EAEU, Moscow is fully aware that it has a more tangible advantage over Armenia on this issue than Brussels does.

Firstly, because Armenia is economically heavily dependent on the EAEU and directly on Russia, it could find itself on the edge of an economic abyss if it were to leave this organization. This is clearly demonstrated by the trade turnover between Armenia and Russia for 2024, which is nearly $12 billion. This is Moscow's main leverage.

Secondly, Russia fully understands that the financially struggling Armenia is not exactly welcomed with open arms by the EU. The prospect of Armenia joining this European structure is highly uncertain, and at best, Yerevan may have to wait for decades. Interestingly, this view is shared by certain segments of Armenian society that are capable of assessing the current reality.

However, what is curious is that, despite the bleak prospects of Armenia's EU membership, European ambitions are criticized within the Russian government, even by staunch defenders of Armenian interests. For example, one of these defenders, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Konstantin Zatulin, has been adamant that if Armenia were to join the European Union, it would no longer be able to remain in the EAEU. He even reproached the "beloved" Armenians, pointing out that it is precisely due to their membership in the EAEU that the republic's economy is growing.

"Based on the European Union's position, which was demonstrated in its approach to Ukraine, Armenia, and all the post-Soviet aspirants, simultaneous membership in the Eurasian Union and Europe is impossible," said Zatulin.

It is clear that Moscow's key objective is to maintain its influence over Armenia and keep it within its sphere of power. However, given Armenia's desire to sit on two chairs, it is not the language of diplomacy but of force that prevails in the case of the "country of stones." Will Russia resort to this? It remains unclear for now...