Revanchism and the Armenian diaspora Dashnaktsutyun rushes to fight Azerbaijan

Recently, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) - Dashnaktsutyun party published its strategy for the coming years. Among the key objectives, some points directly challenge Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. One article of the strategy calls for "Strengthening the independent Armenian statehood, restoring territorial integrity and sovereignty." "The first goal is the restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia in accordance with the letter and spirit of the Declaration of Independence," stated Hakob Ter-Khachaturyan, a representative of the ARF Bureau.

In a broader sense, the Dashnaks view Armenia's composition not only as including Karabakh but also Nakhchivan and the eastern part of Türkiye, which Armenian nationalists refer to as "Western Armenia." The Treaty of Sèvres, which was successfully discarded by the Turkish people into the annals of history, still serves as a kind of sacred text for the Dashnaks. However, as we can see, the claim to Karabakh remains the primary strategic goal for the Dashnaks. In addition to the "Unifying the Nation around the ‘Artsakh’ liberation agenda," the Dashnaks have also set a parallel task: "the implementation of international legal and political guarantees for the collective return of the ‘Artsakh’ Armenians."

Thus, we have a situation where one of Armenia's main opposition parties, allied with the party of Robert Kocharyan, has once again made territorial claims against Azerbaijan a part of its official agenda. It must be acknowledged that nothing has changed in the historical program of hatred that "Dashnaktsutyun" has for Azerbaijanis and Turks.

On the other hand, never before has the global Armenian community been as ideologically heterogeneous and fragmented as it is now, and the division between Armenians in the Republic of Armenia and their fellow countrymen abroad (especially those living in the West) has never been so strong.

The Dashnaks enjoy strong support from the Armenian diaspora, which is understandable—being distant from the realities of life in Armenia, it’s easier to cling to fantasies of territorial expansion and conflicts with neighboring countries. Armenian oligarchs and everyday citizens are willing to continue pouring money into these causes, as long as they don't lose their sense of identity. For them, donations for revenge are as satisfying as a gourmet steak or a dose of cocaine—it doesn't matter that it's all futile or that part of the money is simply stolen; what matters is that their pride as Armenians is nourished. This applies to the donors. As for political figures, their motivations are more straightforward—first, to keep receiving funds from the diaspora, and second, to seize power in Armenia.

To achieve their second objective, and given the relative stability of the ruling party, the Dashnaks are likely counting on widespread disillusionment with the current prime minister. The critical moment for them will be the vote on Armenia’s new draft constitution, which is expected to remove references to the Declaration of Independence—thereby eliminating territorial claims against Azerbaijan. The Dashnaks will likely exploit the frustration of Armenians, who, at the time of voting, may feel it’s time to “return to their roots.” However, the Pashinyan party appears determined to push through this reform after securing a mandate with a decisive majority in the 2026 elections. This makes it more difficult for the Dashnaks to remove the Civil Contract party from power. Still, it’s important to remember that the Dashnaks have extensive experience in terrorism. If they fail to secure significant results in the elections, they are likely to turn to destabilizing the situation.

Although speculation is a thankless task, with a year to go before the elections, it’s impossible to be certain that the ruling party will retain its position. Moreover, one cannot be fully confident in Pashinyan's consistent stance, as it’s well-known that he has “seven Fridays in a week” and is actively militarizing Armenia, perhaps dreaming of a small "victorious" war against Azerbaijan.

On the other hand, Baku is crafting its policy independently of who holds power in Armenia, preparing for the worst-case scenario. If Armenia attempts to follow such a course of action, the Iron Fist will not be swayed by party membership cards.