Will EU take steps towards Armenian-Azerbaijani normalisation?
Farhad Mammadov's standpoint

POLITICS  16 August 2022 - 11:09

Director of the South Caucasus Research Center, political analyst Farkhad Mammadov has been talking about the role of the EU in the normalisation of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia and has been giving forecasts for the near future.

"A bit of history...

Since last summer, following the visit of EU Council President Charles Michel to the region, the European Union declared its ambitions to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Europeans even had to revise the budgets of the financial packages to Azerbaijan and Armenia to obtain this role... they had to almost equalise them, which Baku called "honest mediation".

Since last December, there have been several face-to-face and videoconference meetings between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia with Michel's participation. There are three statements, the texts of which have been agreed upon with the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders. The format of personal representatives was established. The priority was to create the conditions for a peace treaty and to participate indirectly in the process of unblocking and defining the borders between the countries.

Armenian deadlines...

However, from the very first meeting, the problem of implementing the agreements within the stipulated time frame, that is, the deadlines, surfaced. After December 2021, after waiting three months, Baku signed a Memorandum with Iran, demonstrating that it was not going to wait for a reaction from Irevan... The same happened later with the border commission...

The blind side of the EU mediation

The weak side of the mediation mission is the lack of institutional binding (everything is based on the verbal consent of the parties) and the absence of the EU "on the ground". This fact puts all EU initiatives in a difficult position during escalations, as there is nothing to refer to, on the one hand, and no mechanisms of influence, on the other. One careless statement of EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar in Armenia challenges EU efforts... Well, one can write on Twitter... Well, one can make a phone call after the escalation... so what?!

The only EU mechanism remains money - the financial component. Political mechanisms are available, but in the current environment using political mechanisms is fraught with complications in the regional balance... In the context of finance, EU support for Azerbaijan and Armenia is important, but not fundamental. Azerbaijan's position here is preferable since its needs for EU finances are many times less than Armenia's.

Immediate outlook

Today we have the announced date of Lachin surrender, the expected decision on the Zangazur corridor announced by President Ilham Aliyev, and Azerbaijan's demand for the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Karabakh. In these circumstances, meetings are expected in Brussels and Moscow.

If decisions are made, where will they be announced? In Moscow or Brussels? Will Brussels remain in the role of confirming statements that are adopted in the trilateral format in Moscow?

Let me remind you that the EU has financial leverage to engage in mediation. And this lever can be useful if handled wisely.

It should be noted that Armenia finances the Armenian population of Karabakh and pays for the Armenian armed forces there. Money of 300 million dollars from the Armenian budget goes to Karabakh Armenians, who in their turn pay for the service of Armenian citizens. The EU could stop the financial support of Armenia allowing the placement of Eurobonds, through which Armenia borrowed 750 million euros in 2021. That is, the money coming from Europe creates opportunities for Armenia to maintain military forces on Azerbaijani territory and derail the normalization process.

If Armenia invited the EU to mediation, it must implement the agreements in time, otherwise, the basis for escalation is created, and during escalation, Russian mediation comes to the fore, because the Russian peacekeeping contingent is "on the ground". If Brussels wants to maintain its position in mediation, it should use the available mechanisms.

Azerbaijan has demonstrated that it adheres to agreements and takes active forceful action only after delayed deadlines from Armenia. To avoid a new escalation in late August or early September, the EU must act. If, of course, the EU leadership still has the desire to mediate...," Mammadov wrote on his Telegram channel.

Caliber.Az