"Fate of Neo-Empire is decided on battlefields in Ukraine"
Caliber.Az interview with Russian political strategist

INTERVIEWS  17 August 2022 - 11:50

Caliber.az's interview with a well-known Russian political scientist and strategist, Igor Mintusov.

- How do you see the development of the Russian economy over the next 2 years under the sanctions?

- In connection with the sanctions on the Russian economy, of course, there will be a recession. Inflation will rise. I do not presume to predict exactly how much inflation will increase and how long the recession in the economy will last, but I positively assess the efforts of the government and the Central Bank to counteract these phenomena. And one more thing I can say quite confidently that despite the almost complete break with the West and isolation from the Western market, the country's economy will remain a liberal market economy, that is, there will be no return to a socialist, administrative-command system.

- Will Russia be able to find new energy markets during this period?

- Yes, I think it will work. Basically, these will be partner countries from the BRICS, such as India and China. Perhaps Argentina, which has recently applied for membership in the organization, will also buy Russian energy resources. The question is how much it will be beneficial for the Russian side. It is also obvious that buyers of Russian raw materials will try to take advantage of the current situation and achieve maximum discounts. Thus, undoubtedly, deals with partners from the East will be less profitable than with Western ones.

- Are today's Russian-friendly countries, such as India, China, Türkiye, South Africa and others, able to maintain partnership relations with Russia under increased pressure from the West?

- I think that large countries such as India and China will be able to maintain a balance between the purchase of Russian raw materials and the receipt of Western technologies, for this, they have enough subjectivity and political independence. As for smaller countries, such as Türkiye, they will have to show miracles of manoeuvring in order to achieve this balance and not fall victim to secondary sanctions. Nevertheless, we see that Türkiye is actively trying to do this in the current difficult geopolitical conditions.

- It looks like the war in Ukraine is dragging on. How do you think how prices for gas and oil will change as the conflict drags on?

- As for gas prices, I can only say that prices will definitely not fall. As you know, Nord Stream 2 is closed, and shortages will continue until massive supplies of liquefied natural gas from the US and other alternative sources. The same applies to oil, because a quick organization of the diversification of supplies from Russia is impossible and may take years, therefore, oil prices will also rise or at least not fall. Moreover, the formation of the price of Brent oil largely depends on the pricing of Russian oil of the Urals variety.

- How did the "special operation" in Ukraine affect integration projects in the post-Soviet space? Do you think that relations with the former republics of the USSR have become closer or vice versa? I don't mean the Baltic States, which traditionally seek to distance themselves from Russia and its influence.

- Influenced in different ways. For example, Kazakhstan has increasingly begun to say "no" to Russia on a number of burning political issues. As for Belarus, Lukashenka demonstrated his loyalty to his friendship with Russia by assisting in military actions against Ukraine, and thus managed to divert Europe's attention from himself as "the last dictator of Europe". The countries of Central Asia act on the principle of searching for the nearest strong partner. Today, this is Russia, but recently both China and Iran are trying to strengthen their role in the region. Relations with Georgia have recently deteriorated greatly and this has become an obvious fact.

- Is the idea of recreating the USSR alive in the minds of the leadership of the Russian Federation? How realistic do you see this idea?

- I don’t see the idea of restoring the USSR as a socialist state, but the idea of restoring some kind of cultural, economic and political Neo-Imperial Eurasian entity in the place of the former USSR are those ideas that for the vast majority of the ruling elites of Russia are ideas of an existential nature. The ruling elites see this as their mission to future generations of Russians, who, in their opinion, should appreciate the efforts of the country's leaders in this direction. How realistic this project will be shown by the success of military operations. As President Putin and many of his entourage like to say: “Everything will be decided on the battlefield!” Therefore, the fate of the Neo-Empire project is being decided, at the moment, while I am giving you an interview, on the battlefields in Ukraine. I repeat, the Neo-Empire, according to the initiators of this idea, will not repeat either the geographical contours of the USSR or its political structure but will be a kind of state that takes into account the realities of the 21st century, bearing its modern features.

- How do you assess the role of Turkey in establishing peace in the Caucasus and the economic development of the region?

- Russia and, as a fait accompli, Turkey, played a key role in signing the ceasefire statement in Karabakh. Turkey has undoubtedly recently increased its political influence in many regions of the world - including the Caucasus, Syria, North Africa, and even Ukraine. This is an indisputable fact, but I do not presume to evaluate the economic influence of Turkey on the regions. I only know that Turkey is one of the largest investors in Georgia and Azerbaijan, but as far as I know, there are many economic problems inside Turkey, such as rising prices, galloping inflation, etc.

Caliber.Az