"NATO base in the South Caucasus will cause uncontrollable processes"
Israeli analyst on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  24 April 2024 - 15:28

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Yuri Bocharov, director of the Institute for Information Warfare Research, Israeli analyst, candidate of political sciences.

- Yuri Borisovich, how do you assess the early withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Karabakh?

- After last year's anti-terrorist operation, Karabakh has fully returned to Baku's legitimate control. The infrastructure of the so-called "Nkr" (“Nagorno-Karabakh Region”) was finally dismantled, putting an end to another "hot spot" in the region. And if there is no "hot spot", what is the need for peacekeepers? Although it is unlikely that they would have left this territory without diplomatic efforts on the part of Azerbaijan. Thus, it can be stated that the completion of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh will be an important moment in the geopolitical changes in the Caucasus region.

- Does the beginning of the process of border delimitation between Armenia and Azerbaijan increase the likelihood of signing a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan in the foreseeable future?

- Azerbaijan's pressure on Armenia and Baku's position on the world stage is what increases the likelihood of signing a peace agreement, the rest are individual successful moments of this pressure.

- What does Armenia's voluntary return of four occupied villages in Gazakh to Azerbaijan tell us?

This speaks solely of Azerbaijan's unyielding position to defend its right and its lands. And although this position does not suit everyone, especially in the West, it cannot but be admired for its steadfastness. Moreover, Azerbaijan is right and everyone understands this, and all the delays in resolving these issues are just political games of the countries and politicians behind Armenia.

- What is the probability of Armenia's final turn towards the West?

- There is, of course, such a possibility, but it is influenced by too many factors, most of which do not even depend on Armenia's position. It could change too dramatically the balance of power not only in the South Caucasus, but also in the entire Middle East. A probable NATO base in the South Caucasus may cause too many uncontrollable processes that may lead to the opening of new fronts and hot spots. And this already directly affects not only the interests of Russia, but also China and many countries of the Middle East.

- In your estimation, how long will the war in the Middle East last?

- It depends on which war you are talking about. Indeed, there are about ten wars in the Middle East today on the territories of Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Yemen. Some of them are connected, some of them have their own origins and problems. And it is unlikely to expect their end in the near future. In the Middle East, as a rule, the well-being and prosperity of one state depends on problems in another, so there are many interested in fighting and solving their problems by creating hot spots in their neighbours.

- Can the conflict between Israel and Iran move into a "hot" phase?

- The conflict between Israel and Iran has been going on for more than 30 years. It periodically takes a "hot" phase, as it did this month. But Iran is now absolutely not interested in large-scale military action, especially on its own territory, with the US and its coalition against it. Israel is not interested in Iran either, it is already fighting a war on two fronts: in the Gaza Strip against Hamas terrorists and in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. So we can say that after exchanging blows, which were more of an image-making nature and aimed at satisfying the domestic audience, Israel and Iran again went their separate ways and continued their confrontation "under the carpet".

Caliber.Az