Yerevan's lame 'breakthrough'
Why Armenians should not feel happy about EU and CSTO missions

ANALYTICS  14 October 2022 - 13:01

In contrast to the previous tightening of the screws to satisfy Yerevan's whims, neither the EU, the US nor Russia now indulge it, and it seems the only joy for Armenians today is the missions of the EU and CSTO on the border with Azerbaijan. Armenia perceives this as a "triumph" of personal agreements in Prague, all the more so because other agreements are complete failures. However, they should not rejoice - in fact, sending missions to the border, apparently, is undertaken precisely in order to cut off the oxygen to all the adventures of Yerevan.

Meanwhile, much about the EU mission, literally begged by Yerevan in Prague, is becoming known only now. As the secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, told the media, Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan told the media that "there is an agreement to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and complete the process of border delimitation by the end of the year." Here, after this explanation, it becomes clear that this fact hits all the "joys" of Yerevan very hard.

It is approximately the same with regard to the planned CSTO mission to the Armenian borderland. This time, contrary to the expectations of the Armenians, both missions are envisaging a very short-term stay at the Armenian borders. Moreover, there is an impression that this is some kind of move by the EU and Russia to persuade Yerevan to hurry up the delimitation. The peace treaty is, of course, closely linked to it. It is also obvious that the peacekeeping groups, due to the urgency and solidity of the proposed task, will literally work without sparing their lives and thus carefully and objectively monitor all armed incidents on the border. There is also an important strategic advantage, which was unambiguously confirmed by Azerbaijan in Prague: the missions will be deployed only on the sovereign territory of Armenia, and no observers will be able to enter our country, our border zone. Let them keep peace and monitor the activity of Armenian revanchists-separatists.

This means that we can say "farewell" to all Armenian armed provocations: being under the cover of EU and CSTO experts, it will be difficult for Yerevan to accuse Baku of violating the ceasefire regime. Another problem is that no one will cover Armenia in the current context - on the one hand, the control is too strict, and on the other hand, no external actor in the region today is simply unprofitable and uninterested in any border incidents. And we should explain why.

It is not so long ago that the situation was different. Of course, it is nonsense: almost all the major world players suddenly woke up and joined the race for a peaceful settlement in the South Caucasus. They are literally burning with desire and a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia is almost the main trend on the world political scene. Here, objectively speaking, everything was played at once - both Baku's brilliant diplomatic game and the extreme aggravation of global geopolitics. The first and main factor is that the EU and the US are keen to make headway on the issue of a peaceful settlement in the South Caucasus while Russia is distracted by the war in Ukraine, weakened and not very active. And up until the Prague talks, the EU and the US were doing quite well here. But after Prague, Russia woke up and became more active than ever.

Since then, the race for leadership in the South Caucasus region has been in full swing. And now we can observe a paradoxical "festival of peacebuilding proposals" from different centres of power. We can't complain, since it only serves us well.

Such large-scale announcements, for example, that Putin wants to propose to Armenia and Azerbaijan another trilateral summit during his visit to Astana, is also one of them. Of course, it is not a question of someone being very fond of Baku and Azerbaijan. The question of successfully mediating a peace treaty and generally establishing a dialogue with the neighbours has at some point become a fascinating tug-of-war contest for the West and Russia.

In fact, all the players here do not care about Armenia. But they should rub Moscow's nose in it. It wouldn't hurt to make friends with Baku at the same time. It is Baku, not Yerevan because mediators perceive Azerbaijan's reaction today as an encouragement for their efforts and their undoubted leadership. Surprisingly, to put it simply, at the moment Baku is ruling the whole peace process, influencing the mood of Washington, Brussels, and Moscow at the same time. The moment of geopolitics, by the way, is fully historical, though local in scope and timing. Clearly, it is here and now.

EU wants to make Baku's life easier because Azerbaijan is an important partner for Brussels in terms of energy supply and security. The main thing is that the country is a probable global transporter of enormous gas flows from Asia, and perhaps from Turkmenistan as well. Yes, at the moment our gas is not enough for all of Europe, but the prospects are excellent. Moreover, the project to bring Israeli gas in transit from Türkiye is still in the development stage. And Russia can arrange a gas block to Europe in the cold autumn tomorrow or even now, any "surprise" from Moscow cannot be ruled out.

Moscow itself also needs a positive reaction from Baku. And here is another truth: Armenia is flirting with Washington, blatantly pushing Russia aside. Armenia has practically proved to Moscow that it is "serious" with the USA. Therefore, Russia is much more interested in Azerbaijan as a bona fide partner, and also because Baku is also an additional exit to Ankara and further to Europe both in a direct and figurative sense - on the one hand, through the strongest friendship between Aliyev and Erdogan, and on the other hand, through the future Zangazur corridor, which will certainly become a strategic transit window for sanctions-stricken Russia. Moscow needs all this very much and it is important.

By the way, Armenian political scientist, and orientalist Sergey Melkonyan displayed in the media very realistic views on the friendship between the EU and Baku and why Armenians should not be so pleased by the EU mission on the border.

Judging by the tone of his statements, he does not respect Azerbaijan; however, he has common sense. And in his opinion, any EU decisions will be biased, due to the dependence of the EU on Baku, which will lead to actions, which are not in Armenia's interests.

Melkonyan even explained that for a basic understanding of the EU approach, it is important to compare two pieces of news: EU ambassadors have agreed to send a civilian mission to Armenia, to be deployed along the border with Azerbaijan to build confidence and facilitate delimitation, and that Azerbaijan intends to double gas supplies to the EU.

"Europe is refusing Russian gas under US pressure. A quick solution can be offered by Azerbaijan. Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Egypt in the framework of the Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline and other potential countries will not be able to meet the needs of the Europeans quickly. In this sense, Baku is irreplaceable, even temporarily," he admits in his Telegram channel.

At the same time, the political scientist specifies that the European mission is supposed to be on the Armenian side only, "while the Azerbaijani side has refused."

"And in this case, there will be no objectivity during any incident on the border," Melkonyan sorrowfully concluded.

So here Yerevan has no fictitious or real consolidation of interests. The truth is that peacekeepers from the EU and the CSTO are going to Armenia for one purpose only - to force Yerevan to delimit and sign a peace treaty before Christmas - after that date, none of them intends to stay in Armenia for long.

Caliber.Az